Probabilities
John Wiley & Sons Inc (Verlag)
978-0-470-04001-0 (ISBN)
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What are the chances? Find out in this entertaining exploration of probabilities in our everyday lives. 'If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real - world situations' - Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio's 'Math Guy' and author of "The Math Gene and The Math Instinct".'A delightful guide to the sometimes counterintuitive discipline of probability. Olofsson points out major ideas here, explains classic puzzles there, and everywhere makes free use of witty vignettes to instruct and amuse' - John Allen Paulos, Temple University, author of "Innumeracy" and "A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper". 'Beautifully written, with fascinating examples and tidbits of information. Olofsson gently and persuasively shows us how to think clearly about the uncertainty that governs our lives' - John Haigh, University of Sussex, author of "Taking Chances: Winning with Probability".From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, "Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives" investigates the often-surprising effects of risk and chance in our everyday lives.
With examples ranging from WWII espionage to the O. J. Simpson trial, from bridge to blackjack, from Julius Caesar to Jerry Seinfeld, the reader is taught how to think straight in a world of randomness and uncertainty. Throughout the book, readers learn: why it is not that surprising for someone to win the lottery twice; how a faulty probability calculation forced an innocent woman to spend three years in prison; how to place bets if you absolutely insist on gambling; and, how a newspaper turned an opinion poll into one of the greatest election blunders in history. Educational, eloquent, and entertaining, "Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives" is the ideal companion for anyone who wants to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance.
PETER OLOFSSON, PHD, is currently a Visiting Associate Professor at Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana. Dr. Olofsson is an active researcher in the field of applied probability and is an experienced teacher. He is the author of the textbook Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, also from Wiley.
Preface.1. Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways.The Probabilist.The Probabilist's Toys and Language.The Probabilist's Rule Book.Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants.Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts.Liar, Liar.Total Probability, Used Cars, and Tennis Matches.Co~nbinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry.The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution.Final Word.2. Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles.Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards.Goats and Gloats.Happy Birthday.Typical Atypicalities.Strategies, Shopping, and Spaghetti Westerns.The British Snob and I.Final Word.3. Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape?Probable Itnprobabilities.Saddam and I.Taking Tiny Risks.A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One!Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37.Clumps in Space.Final Word.4. Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue.Driving Miss Daisy.Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls).Bayes and My Green Card.Objection Your Honor.Final Word.5. Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect.Great Expectations.Good Things Come to Those Who Wait.Expect the Unexpected.Size Matters (and Length, and Age).Deviant Behavior.Final Word.6. Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results.Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over.Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood.Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion.Let's Get Serious.Bells and Bread.How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life.Final Word.7. Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You.French Letters.Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money.Craps: Not so Dicey After All.Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics.Math for Losers.Win Money and Lose Friends.Final Word.8. Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians.Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies?4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20.Polls Gone Wild.The Lawsuit and the Lurker.Football Players and Geyser Eruptions.Snooping in the Abbot's Garden.Final Word.9. Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation.Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic.Random and Not-So-Random Digits.Number One Is Number One.Is Random Really Random?Final Word.Index.
| Erscheint lt. Verlag | 24.11.2006 |
|---|---|
| Zusatzinfo | Illustrations |
| Verlagsort | New York |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Maße | 164 x 240 mm |
| Gewicht | 591 g |
| Einbandart | gebunden |
| Themenwelt | Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Wahrscheinlichkeit / Kombinatorik |
| ISBN-10 | 0-470-04001-7 / 0470040017 |
| ISBN-13 | 978-0-470-04001-0 / 9780470040010 |
| Zustand | Neuware |
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