The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results

A Practical Guide

Eduard Hofer (Autor)

Buch | Softcover

XV, 346 Seiten

2019 | 1. Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 2018
Springer International Publishing (Verlag)
978-3-030-09456-0 (ISBN)

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This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.

Eduard Hofer holds a Master of Science diploma with distinction in mathematics from the Technical University of Munich (TUM), Germany. He developed a method for the numerical solution of initial value problems with large systems of stiff first-order ordinary differential equations. He also designed a non-commercial, PC-based software system for uncertainty analysis of results from computer models and conducted the uncertainty analysis of numerous applications of computationally demanding computer models. Hofer served on the external peer-review committee of a major US dose reconstruction study with the subtask in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and contributed to numerous international conferences. Furthermore, he received an award for his contributions in the field of probabilistic risk assessment.

Preface.- Introduction and necessary distinctions.- Step 1: Search.- Step 2: Quantify.- Step 3: Propagate.- Step 4: Estimate uncertainty.- Step 5: Rank uncertainties.- Step 6: Present the analysis and interpret its results.- Practical execution of the analysis.- Uncertainty analysis when separation of uncertainties is required.- Practical examples.- References.- Subject index.

Erscheinungsdatum	28.02.2019
Zusatzinfo	XV, 346 p. 129 illus., 107 illus. in color.
Verlagsort	Cham
Sprache	englisch
Maße	155 x 235 mm
Gewicht	557 g
Themenwelt	Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Wahrscheinlichkeit / Kombinatorik
Schlagworte	aleatory uncertainty • application of computer models • data uncertainty • epistemic uncertainty • measuring uncertainty • Model uncertainty • Quality Control, Reliability, Safety and Risk • Sampling methods • state of knowledge quantification • uncertainty analysis
ISBN-10	3-030-09456-1 / 3030094561
ISBN-13	978-3-030-09456-0 / 9783030094560
Zustand	Neuware