Predictive Statistics

Analysis and Inference beyond Models

Bertrand S. Clarke, Jennifer L. Clarke (Autoren)

Buch | Hardcover

656 Seiten

2018
Cambridge University Press (Verlag)
978-1-107-02828-9 (ISBN)

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Aimed at statisticians and machine learners, this retooling of statistical theory asserts that high-quality prediction should be the guiding principle of modeling and learning from data, then shows how. The fully predictive approach to statistical problems outlined embraces traditional subfields and 'black box' settings, with computed examples.

All scientific disciplines prize predictive success. Conventional statistical analyses, however, treat prediction as secondary, instead focusing on modeling and hence estimation, testing, and detailed physical interpretation, tackling these tasks before the predictive adequacy of a model is established. This book outlines a fully predictive approach to statistical problems based on studying predictors; the approach does not require predictors correspond to a model although this important special case is included in the general approach. Throughout, the point is to examine predictive performance before considering conventional inference. These ideas are traced through five traditional subfields of statistics, helping readers to refocus and adopt a directly predictive outlook. The book also considers prediction via contemporary 'black box' techniques and emerging data types and methodologies where conventional modeling is so difficult that good prediction is the main criterion available for evaluating the performance of a statistical method. Well-documented open-source R code in a Github repository allows readers to replicate examples and apply techniques to other investigations.

Bertrand S. Clarke is Chair of the Department of Statistics at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln. His research focuses on predictive statistics and statistical methodology in genomic data. He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association, serves as editor or associate editor for three journals, and has published numerous papers in several statistical fields as well as a book on data mining and machine learning. Jennifer Clarke is Professor of Food Science and Technology, Professor of Statistics, and Director of the Quantitative Life Sciences Initiative at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln. Her current interests include statistical methodology for metagenomics and prediction, statistical computation, and multitype data analysis. She serves on the steering committee of the Midwest Big Data Hub and is co-PI on an award from the NSF focused on data challenges in digital agriculture.

Part I. The Predictive View: 1. Why prediction?; 2. Defining a predictive paradigm; 3. What about modeling?; 4. Models and predictors: a bickering couple; Part II. Established Settings for Prediction: 5. Time series; 6. Longitudinal data; 7. Survival analysis; 8. Nonparametric methods; 9. Model selection; Part III. Contemporary Prediction: 10. Blackbox techniques; 11. Ensemble methods; 12. The future of prediction; References; Index.

Erscheinungsdatum	13.05.2018
Reihe/Serie	Cambridge Series in Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics
Verlagsort	Cambridge
Sprache	englisch
Maße	180 x 259 mm
Gewicht	1330 g
Themenwelt	Informatik ► Datenbanken ► Data Warehouse / Data Mining
	Informatik ► Theorie / Studium ► Künstliche Intelligenz / Robotik
	Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Statistik
	Wirtschaft ► Allgemeines / Lexika
	Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Ökonometrie
ISBN-10	1-107-02828-0 / 1107028280
ISBN-13	978-1-107-02828-9 / 9781107028289
Zustand	Neuware