Probability, Econometrics and Truth

The Methodology of Econometrics

Hugo A. Keuzenkamp (Autor)

Buch | Hardcover

324 Seiten

2000
Cambridge University Press (Verlag)
978-0-521-55359-9 (ISBN)

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When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes' comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of econometric inference by examining the various interpretations of probability theory which underlie econometrics. Keuzenkamp claims that the probabilistic foundations of econometrics are weak, and although econometric inferences may yield interesting knowledge, claims to be able to falsify or verify economic theories are unwarranted. Methodological falsificationism in econometrics is an illusion. Instead, it is argued, econometrics should locate itself in the tradition of positivism.

Introduction; 1. The philosophy of induction; 2. Probability and indifference: Intermezzo: a formal scheme of reference; 3. Reactive frequency and induction; 4. Probability and belief; 5. The theory of simplicity; 6. From probability to econometrics; 7. Econometric modelling; 8. In search of homogeneity; 9. Positivism and the aims of econometrics; 10. Probability, econometrics and truth; Personalia; References; Indexes.

Erscheint lt. Verlag	2.11.2000
Verlagsort	Cambridge
Sprache	englisch
Maße	152 x 229 mm
Gewicht	650 g
Themenwelt	Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Ökonometrie
ISBN-10	0-521-55359-8 / 0521553598
ISBN-13	978-0-521-55359-9 / 9780521553599
Zustand	Neuware