Educational Research and Innovation Computers and the Future of Skill Demand (eBook)

Stuart W. Elliott (Autor)

eBook Download: PDF

2017 | 1. Auflage
108 Seiten
OECD Publishing (Verlag)
978-92-64-28439-5 (ISBN)

Infos

Computer scientists are working on reproducing all human skills using artificial intelligence, machine learning and robotics. Unsurprisingly then, many people worry that these advances will dramatically change work skills in the years ahead and perhaps leave many workers unemployable.

This report develops a new approach to understanding these computer capabilities by using a test based on the OECD’s Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) to compare computers with human workers. The test assesses three skills that are widely used at work and are an important focus of education: literacy, numeracy and problem solving with computers.

Most workers in OECD countries use the three skills every day. However, computers are close to reproducing these skills at the proficiency level of most adults in the workforce. Only 13% of workers now use these skills on a daily basis with a proficiency that is clearly higher than computers.

The findings raise troubling questions about whether most workers will be able to acquire the skills they need as these new computer capabilities are increasingly used over the next few decades. To answer those questions, the report’s approach could be extended across the full range of work skills. We need to know how computers and people compare across all skills to develop successful policies for work and education for the future.

Inhalt

Foreword 5
Acknowledgements 7
Table of contents 9
Executive summary 15
Key findings 15
Interpretation of the results 16
Conclusions 16
Notes 17
Chapter 1 The challenge computers pose to work and education 19
Past employment trends in skill demand 21
Projected future trends in skill demand 23
Plan for the study and report 25
Notes 26
References 26
Chapter 2 Changes in skills and skill use in the OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) 29
Overview of the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) 30
Using PIAAC to measure changes in skill demand 31
Data about skill use 32
Comparing PIAAC to previous studies on skills used at work 32
Results for literacy proficiency in PIAAC and the International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS) 33
Figure 2.1. Distribution of adult population by level of literacy, IALS and PIAAC 33
Figure 2.2. Distribution of workers by level of literacy, IALS and PIAAC 34
Basic results on skill use for PIAAC and IALS 35
Figure 2.3. Daily use of different written materials at work, IALS and PIAAC 36
Figure 2.4. Weekly use of different written materials at work, IALS and PIAAC 36
Figure 2.5. Daily and weekly use of any written materials at work, IALS and PIAAC 37
Utilised literacy proficiency – combining results on literacy proficiency and use 37
Figure 2.6. Proportion of workers at each proficiency level who use literacy skills daily, IALS and PIAAC 38
Figure 2.7. Proportion of workers at each proficiency level who use literacy skills weekly, IALS and PIAAC 38
Figure 2.8. Distribution of workers by daily literacy use and level of proficiency, IALS and PIAAC 39
Figure 2.9. Distribution of workers by weekly literacy use and level of proficiency, IALS and PIAAC 40
Understanding the different approaches to measuring skill use 41
Notes 42
References 42
Chapter 3 Methodology for assessing computer capabilities using the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) 45
Objective for the exploratory assessment of computer capabilities 46
Identifying a group of computer scientists 48
Table 3.1. Computer scientists providing assessments of computer capabilities 49
Structure of the assessment of computer capabilities 49
Rating individual test questions or using cut-points across the full set of questions 50
Giving ratings for the past and the future 51
Setting parameters for development of computer systems for the test questions 51
How to approach the use of visual materials 52
Final specifications of the assessment exercise carried out at the meeting 54
Suggestions for improving the approach to assessing computer capabilities 54
Improving understanding of the test questions 54
Improving understanding of computer capabilities 56
Summary of possible extensions for future work 58
Notes 58
References 59
Chapter 4 Assessment of computer capabilities to answer questions in the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) 61
Ratings of computer capabilities to answer the literacy questions 62
Computer literacy ratings by question difficulty 63
Figure 4.1. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer literacy questions, averaged with Maybe=50%, by level of PIAAC question difficulty 63
Figure 4.2. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC literacy questions, averaged with alternative coding of Maybe ratings, by level of question difficulty 64
Accounting for differences in areas of expertise in the literacy ratings 65
Figure 4.3. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC literacy questions, comparing average using Maybe=50% and 3-expert minimum, by level of question difficulty 66
Computer literacy ratings by expert 66
Figure 4.4. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC literacy questions, by expert 67
Comparing the computer literacy ratings to human scores 67
Figure 4.5. Comparison of computer literacy ratings with adults of different proficiency, using average rating with Maybe=50%, by level of PIAAC question difficulty 68
Figure 4.6. Comparison of computer literacy ratings with adults of different proficiency, using a 3-expert minimum, by level of PIAAC question difficulty 69
Disagreement on the computer literacy ratings 69
Figure 4.7. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC literacy questions, comparing the average using all questions to the average using only questions showing high agreement, by level of question difficulty 70
Discussion of the literacy questions 70
Computer literacy ratings for 2026 by three experts 72
Figure 4.8. Comparison of computer literacy ratings for 2016 and 2026, by level of PIAAC question difficulty 73
Summary of computer ratings on the literacy questions 73
Ratings of computer capabilities to answer the numeracy questions 74
Computer numeracy ratings by question difficulty 74
Figure 4.9. Expert ratings of computer numeracy capabilities to answer PIAAC numeracy questions, averaged with Maybe=50%, by level of question difficulty 75
Figure 4.10. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC numeracy questions, averaged with alternative coding of Maybe ratings, by level of question difficulty 76
Accounting for differences in areas of expertise in the numeracy ratings 76
Figure 4.11. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC numeracy questions, comparing average using Maybe=50% and 3-expert minimum, by level of question difficulty 76
Computer numeracy ratings by expert 77
Figure 4.12. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC numeracy questions, by expert 77
Comparing the computer numeracy ratings to human scores 78
Figure 4.13. Comparison of computer numeracy ratings with adults of different proficiency, using average rating with Maybe=50%, by level of PIAAC question difficulty 78
Figure 4.14. Comparison of computer numeracy ratings with adults of different proficiency, using 3-expert minimum, by level of PIAAC question difficulty 79
Disagreement on the computer numeracy ratings 79
Discussion of the numeracy questions 80
Computer numeracy ratings for 2026 by three experts 81
Figure 4.15. Comparison of computer numeracy ratings for 2016 and 2026, by level of PIAAC question difficulty 82
Summary of computer ratings on the numeracy questions 82
Ratings of computer capabilities to answer the problem solving questions 83
Computer problem solving ratings by question difficulty and by expert 83
Figure 4.16. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC problem solving questions, averaged with Maybe=50%, by level of question difficulty 84
Figure 4.17. Comparison of computer problem solving ratings with adults of different proficiency, using average rating with Maybe=50%, by level of PIAAC question difficulty 85
Discussion of the problem solving questions 85
Computer problem solving ratings for 2026 by three experts 85
Figure 4.18. Comparison of computer problem solving ratings for 2016 and 2026, by level of PIAAC question difficulty 86
Summary of computer ratings on the problem solving questions 86
Notes 87
References 88
Chapter 5 Implications of computer capabilities for policy and research 89
Linking current computer capabilities to workforce skill trends 90
Table 5.1. Approximate proficiency level of computer capabilities in the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) 91
Proficiency levels of computers for literacy 91
Figure 5.1. Distribution of workers by daily literacy use and level of proficiency 92
Proficiency levels of computers for numeracy 92
Figure 5.2. Distribution of workers by daily numeracy use and level of proficiency 92
Proficiency levels of computers for problem solving using computers 93
Figure 5.3. Distribution of workers by daily computer use and level of proficiency 93
Bringing together the three sets of results on computer performance 93
Figure 5.4. Distribution of workers by use of general cognitive skills and proficiency compared to computers 94
Identifying the workers who will be the most affected by computer capabilities related to PIAAC 95
Figure 5.5. Proportion of workforce using general cognitive skills with proficiency at or below level of computer capabilities 96
Implications of computer capabilities for employment, based upon this study 97
Realistic aspirations for general cognitive skill development in the general population 98
Figure 5.6. Proportion of adults with high literacy and numeracy proficiency, by country 99
Figure 5.7. Proportion of adults aged 25-34 with high literacy or numeracy proficiency, by country 100
Going beyond the existing understanding of adult and computer skills 101
Notes 102
References 103
Annex A2. PIAAC and IALS comparisons for literacy proficiency and use by country 104
Annex A4.1. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC literacy questions 105
Annex A4.2. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC numeracy questions 106
Annex A4.3. Expert ratings of computer capabilities to answer PIAAC problem solving questions 107
Annex A5. Comparisons of worker proficiency in general cognitive skills with computer capabilities 108
Annex B4. Descriptions of PIAAC proficiency levels and individual expert ratings of computer capabilities for answering PIAAC questions 109

Produkt-Details

• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Allgemeines / Lexika
• ISBN-10: 92-64-28439-7 / 9264284397
• ISBN-13: 978-92-64-28439-5 / 9789264284395