National Energy Plans in the Asia-Pacific Region (eBook)

Proceedings of Workshop III of the Asia-Pacific Energy Studies Consultative Group (APESC)

Guy J. Pauker (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: EPUB

2013 | 1. Auflage
240 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-1-4831-9039-6 (ISBN)

Infos

National Energy Plans in the Asia-Pacific Region is a collection of papers presented at Workshop III of the Asia-Pacific Energy Studies Consultative Group, held in Honolulu, Hawaii, at the East-West Center, from 25-28 February 1980. The collection presents a framework for energy policies in the Asia-Pacific Region; energy policies of the United States, oil-exporting countries, industrial oil-importing countries, and countries importing more than and less than 50% of their oil requirements; and the role of international institutions in energy research. International energy policy makers and researchers will find the book invaluable.

Textauszug

BACKGROUND PAPER

Abstract

This Background Paper was written by Harrison Brown, Guy J. Pauker, and Kirk R. Smith in early 1978. It was circulated among those invited to attend Workshop I of the Asia-Pacific Energy Studies Consultative Group (APESC), as a basis for their initial discussions. The paper provides general guidelines for the APESC Workshops, and is an appropriate introduction to this special issue of ENERGY.

I INTRODUCTION

All countries, developed and developing alike, are currently facing the challenge of formulating and implementing national energy policies under conditions of great uncertainty. The 1973-1974 escalation of the price of crude oil marked the end of the era of inexpensive energy which benefited those countries which had an early start in the first 200 years of the Industrial Revolution. In the future, rapid rates of economic growth will be contingent to a substantial degree on the price and availability of energy resources, while in turn economic development and industrial modernization will modify the demand for energy, nationally and globally.

While most governments have responded vigorously and expeditiously to the challenge of the latent and manifest aspects of the energy crisis–which has become the dominant specter haunting the world economic order–the formulation and implementation of policies is seriously handicapped by a wide range of uncertainties, the most renown of which include: (1) the magnitude of total energy demand as well as its profile, which results in estimates for the year 2000 diverging from the lowest to the highest figures by a factor of five for total demand and even more for certain fuels; (2) the quantity, location, and availability of various energy sources under a broad range of assumptions, including future energy prices; (3) the difficulty of assessing accurately the technical and economic prospects of various alternative energy systems within a time frame relevant to policy makers today; (4) interrelations between economic development planning and energy policy, including industrial location, rural electrification, urbanization, and transition from non-commercial to commercial fuels; (5) the constraints imposed upon the selection of mixtures of energy development strategies by the need to manage wastes such as reactor fission products, uranium and coalmine tailings, and carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels.

In the hope that the range of these and other uncertainties can be reduced, thereby increasing the reliability of the projections which policy makers require, The Resource Systems Institute of the East-West Center has initiated an exploratory conference, to be held in Honolulu, Hawaii, 26-28 July 1978. The role and usefulness will be discussed of an Asia-Pacific Energy Studies Consortium which might serve to stimulate, coordinate, and disseminate research on energy problems within the region.

II ENERGY GROWTH RATES IN PERSPECTIVE

According to the Statistical Office of the United Nations, world aggregate comsumption of the commercial energy increased from 2500 million metric tons of coal equivalent (mmtce) in 1950 to 8000 mmtce in 1975, at an average annual growth rate of 4.6% for 26 years. For North America, the increase was from 1200 mmtce in 1950 to 2600 mmtce in 1975, or an average of 3% per year. In 1975, North America alone consumed more commercial energy than the whole world had in 1950, although energy consumption in North America increased at a rate below the world average. However, energy consumption in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, starting from a small base, is increasing at a much faster rate. Second only to the Middle East, where energy consumption increased at a rate of 11% during the same period, the increase has been most dramatic in the region that the United Nations identifies as Centrally Planned Asia (People’s Republic of China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Mongolian People’s Republic, and Socialist Republic of Vietnam), where energy consumption increased at 10.8% per year from 45 to 625 mmtce. In the rest of Asia, energy consumption increased from 100 to 675 mmtce or 7.7%, which is higher than the rates for any of the remaining regions of the world.

In the developing parts of the Asia-Pacific region, these figures do not accurately reflect the current patterns of energy use, since a large proportion of the energy consumed consists of firewood and agricultural or animal wastes which do not go through the exchange mechanisms of the economy and are thus left out of national income accounts. As a result, the growth rates indicated by these figures are inflated from what they would be if these misnamed “nonconventional” sources were to be included.

Economic development and conservation efforts, seeking to slow down environmental degradation caused by rapid deforestation and soil erosion, are going to shift energy consumption patterns increasingly from non-commercial sources of energy. This shift will result in an increased demand in developing countries of the Asia-Pacific region for kerosene, gas, coal, fuel oil, and electricity for household consumption. This demand will be added to the apparently continuing increase in energy demand for industry, commerce, transportation, and services which presently is at a higher rate than in industrialized economies.

The growth potential for energy demand in the Asia-Pacific region is graphically illustrated by contrasting per capita consumption in North America, which according to United Nations’ statistics increased from 7150 kilograms of coal equivalent (KCE) in 1950 to 10,900 KCE in 1975, whereas in Centrally Planned Asia during the same period, the increase was from 80 to 710 KCE and in the rest of Asia from 130 to 550 KCE. To reach North American levels, per capita energy consumption would have to increase over 15 times in the Centrally Planned Economies of the area and 20 times in the rest of Asia, assuming no further increases in North America. Obviously, however, total demand depends equally on the rate of population growth as on the growth rate of per capita consumption.

Of course, energy consumption itself is not something one wishes to maximize. Thus, in addition to providing suitable amounts and kinds of energy sources, there is a need to make sure that they are used in the most efficient manner. For example, in many of the industrial countries, it has been discovered recently (even though not always implemented) that the cheapest way to improve economic welfare is through measures to increase efficiency, not to supply more energy. Always, the links must be examined between energy and the goods and services it helps provide. Much of the needed information is uncertain or unavailable, however, especially in developing economies.

It may be risky to assume that no major discontinuities will occur in the growth rate of energy demand in the Asia-Pacific region in the decades ahead. The quest for rapid economic growth and industrial modernization may become so intense that an entirely new energy situation is created in the region and in the world. The mechanisms by which such economic and cultural pressures would be translated into social action are difficult to anticipate but could create unprecedented tensions with regard to global and regional energy resources management and allocation. Contributing to the uncertainty that makes planning difficult is the wide variation of energy forecasts published by energy analysts about the future growth rate of energy demand, including some which anticipate that in some countries the per capita energy demand will actually decrease in the coming years.

On a global basis, there is no immediate shortage of total energy supplies. In the short- and even medium-term future, there are sufficient total supplies of the current types of energy sources to meet almost any level of demand that could be expected. Over the longer run, however, the present patterns of energy have severe implications for humanity with a disturbingly high probability sometime beyond the next decade.

Such a collision would not occur suddenly and without warning, although political uncertainties would make it difficult to predict the exact time. At present, the world and the countries of the East-West area are experiencing the preliminary signs of this convergence of resource constraints. Just as the first signs of an approaching famine are initially seen in that part of a population which is already malnourished, ill, or separated from the main food supplies, many parts of the world are experiencing the first signs of the upcoming energy shortage in the form of a series of greatly disproportionate or skewed energy distributions.

III DISPROPORTIONATE DISTRIBUTIONS

Energy sources are rarely available in exactly the location or physical form or at the right time that would best suit humanity. These disproportionate energy distributions cause apparent shortages. The first and best known of these skewed distributions is geographical. Some regions have scarce indigenous supplies while other regions are dependent on energy exports as a source of income. The People’s Republic of China is one of the three countries with the richest endowment of energy resources in the world, with an estimated share of 13% of global hydro-power potential, 13-15% of global coal reserves, an estimated 5-10 billion tons of recoverable crude oil reserves and perhaps 5 trillion...

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 22.10.2013
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Physik / Astronomie
• Themenwelt: Recht / Steuern ► Wirtschaftsrecht
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Elektrotechnik / Energietechnik
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Rechnungswesen / Bilanzen
• Themenwelt: Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Spezielle Betriebswirtschaftslehre ► Immobilienwirtschaft
• ISBN-10: 1-4831-9039-0 / 1483190390
• ISBN-13: 978-1-4831-9039-6 / 9781483190396