Energy for Rural and Island Communities III (eBook)

Proceedings of the Third International Conference Held at Inverness, Scotland, September 1983

Bill Grainger, Fiona Riddoch, John Twidell (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: EPUB

2013 | 1. Auflage
482 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-1-4831-6123-5 (ISBN)

Infos

Energy for Rural and Island Communities III contains the proceedings of the Third International Conference held at Inverness, Scotland, in September 1983. The book is organized into 10 parts, separating the same number of topics in the field of energy for rural and island communities, particularly, energy and development; wind energy; photovoltaic systems; and solar energy. The text also covers wave energy, hydro power, biofuels, and geothermal energy. Energy in transport sector and the Energy Act Workshop are also described.

Textauszug

Energy for the Poor World

D. Pooley,     Director of Non-nuclear Energy Research, Harwell, Oxfordshire, OX11 0RA, UK

INTRODUCTION

Most of us attending this conference will take it for granted that it is necessary for the countries comprising what I have vaguely called the “Poor World” to achieve substantial economic growth if they are to alleviate the poverty which affects so many of their citizens. We realise how wealthy societies routinely use their wealth to buy not only health, longevity, education, etc for their people but also opportunities for information, travel and leisure. We know that virtually all measures of social well-being correlate strongly with measures of national wealth, crude those these undoubtedly are. The example I frequently use (eg Pooley, 1982) is infant death rate, widely recognised as a good indicator of the physical health and quality of health care in a community and for which an inverse correlation with GNP is quite clear. Literacy is another indicator that most of us here would accept as a measure of social well-being; Fig. 1 shows its link with GNP (World Bank, 1976 and Economist, 1978)

FIGURE 1 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LITERACY AND NATIONAL WEALTH

It would probably also be accepted by participants of this conference that economic growth in the poor world must be accompanied by an increase in energy use. The increased human productivity required in the Third World to make those countries richer can only come by greater use of capital and energy. The classic example is agriculture. Energy inputs; steel for tractors and ploughs; water for irrigation; chemicals for fertilisers; can make enormous differences as a comparison between yields from similar land in the USA and Mexico shows, (Fig. 2). Indeed, Revelle has argued (Revelle, 1980) that, if India were to use expensive oil to achieve better cultivation, carry out more irrigation and make fertiliser, the value of increased food production would more than pay for the oil used. On the macro-scale, the correlation between economic activity and energy consumption of different countries (eg Economist, 1978) is just as clear cut. Moreover, within a large but generally poor country like India the large differences between the economic activity of different regions correlate with their energy consumption. Fig. 3 compares economic activity and electricity use for various Indian states, illustrating a further important point, that poor countries do not grow simply by using more fuel-wood or cow-dung; they move increasingly into commercial fuel as they develop economically (Desai, 1978).

FIGURE 2 YIELDS FROM SIMILAR FARM LANDS IN THE USA AND MEXICO

FIGURE 3 PER CAPITA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND INCOME IN INDIA

Of the two related factors, energy use and increased economic activity, I do not know which is cause and which is effect; whether an increased supply of cheap energy will stimulate economic growth in the poor world, or whether the failure to provide that supply of reasonably cheap energy will stifle the economic growth which might otherwise occur. The conclusion is the same. If the economies of poor countries are to grow they will need to use increasing amounts of commercial energy and the cheaper this can be provided, the better. Let me emphasise again commercial energy. In my view it will not suffice simply to provide their energy needs for cooking, washing etc since this will only temporarily relieve the pressure of population on resources. Only commercial energy will catalyse a different life style and at least offer the prospect of breaking out of the present situation.

It therefore seems to me that the challenge and opportunity with respect to the Third World which faces those of us who work in energy science and engineering in the West, is an exciting and a considerable one. Energy for the poor world might be a way in which we can play a small part in tackling the world’s most important problem, the enormous disparity of wealth between the richer and poorer inhabitants of the planet. In this short paper I will try to outline the various ways in which I, personally, think we can contribute to this task. I am certain to leave out quite important issues and I will not be able to provide the details I would like and which the subject deserves.

Broadly, I think there are three groups of actions we need to consider:

1. Making changes in our own society’s energy system which will reduce our consumption of the fossil fuels the poor world most needs and can most easily use, in order to increase the availability and reduce the world price of those fuels. I have said fossil fuels but to all intents and purposes I mean oil; the task is to reduce oil-burn in rich countries.

2. Finding ways of transferring to the Third World those technologies of efficient energy supply and use which we have developed and have proven to be effective, which are also appropriate to Third World needs and which they can adopt more quickly with our help than on their own.

3. Trying to develop for our own rural and island communities, energy technologies which are suited to their circumstances and also suitable for use in some regions of the Third World.

The last is what this conference is mostly about. 1 therefore expect to be unpopular when I say that I believe activity 1. is by a long way the most Important of the three and that 2. is probably also more important than 3. Let me expand on each in turn.

REDUCING OIL CONSUMPTION

Oil is the world’s most important fuel. At present it is practially essential for transport energy and poor countries will have to use much more of it for this purpose if they are to obtain the benefits of specialisation in economic activity which trading allows. It is the easiest fuel by far to move around the world, to use efficiently on a small scale and in a variety of important applications other than its key use as a vehicle fuel; from lighting, through cooking and small-scale electricity generation to controlled heating for small industries. Because it is so easy to transport and to use economically it is the most sensible fuel for users who need only small amounts of energy and, perhaps most important of all, for users who are short of the capital needed to use coal, gas or nuclear energy. Coal requires more sophisticated and expensive plant if the inefficiencies in using it are not to more than offset its long term greater availability and lower price. Nuclear power is just out of the question for all but the larger and wealthier developing countries. The use of oil in the Third World has therefore grown substantially over the last few decades (UN, 1979) (Fig. 4) and it is my hope that this growth will continue in the future.

FIGURE 4 THE GROWTH OF OIL CONSUMPTION IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Oil consumption in the industrial West has fallen dramatically since 1979, in large measure as a consequence of the recession triggered off by the rise in oil prices following the revolution in Iran. Few of us would welcome this recession, which hits the Third World even harder than it does our own country, although we may be happy to see Western oil use fall as a result. However, not all the fall in oil consumption has come from recession. In the industrial economies we use oil for many purposes but three major ones illustrate how the extent of our use has been and can be reduced without the pains of recession and, I believe, with benefit for the Third World. The three uses I have in mind are transport, heating for industrial processes and electric power generation.

In Britain, as in most other countries, consumption of oil for transport has actually grown during the 1970’s, from 20.2 Mtonnes in 1971 to 24.3 Mtonnes in 1981 (D Energy, 1982), despite the increases in fuel price which occurred between these years. Fortunately, concern about fuel consumption in transport during this time has caused car manufacturers to improve aerodynamics, reduce vehicle weight, improve engine design and engine control and car buyers to show increased interest in smaller cars. As a result, fuel consumption per vehicle has not increased much since 1973; energy conservation has probably already begun to have an effect. There is still much left for scientists and engineers to do in improving vehicle technology, from helping to solve the problems of manufacturing lightweight, fibre-composite components to developing exhaust gas oxygen sensors for engine control.

A switch away from oil for process and space heating has also occurred, not to coal in Britain, where gas is available as a more attractive alternative, but away from oil. In Britain, industrial use of oil fell between 1971 and 1981 from 26.4 Mtonnes to 14.0 Mtonnes (D Energy, 1982), (corresponding to a fall of 5.2 Gtherms) and industrial gas consumption rose from 2.5 Gtherms to 5.7 Gtherms during the same period. Coal will also have to enter this industrial heat market eventually, either directly in the new generation of automated coal-burning equipment or indirectly, delivered to the users as substitute natural gas or electricity. Nevetheless, the replacement of oil by other fuels in industrial use has been quite large and has helped oil prices...

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 22.10.2013
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Physik / Astronomie
• Themenwelt: Recht / Steuern ► Wirtschaftsrecht
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Elektrotechnik / Energietechnik
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Rechnungswesen / Bilanzen
• Themenwelt: Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Spezielle Betriebswirtschaftslehre ► Immobilienwirtschaft
• ISBN-10: 1-4831-6123-4 / 1483161234
• ISBN-13: 978-1-4831-6123-5 / 9781483161235