Foundations of Risk Analysis (eBook)

Terje Aven (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2012 | 2. Auflage
224 Seiten
Wiley (Verlag)
978-1-119-94578-9 (ISBN)

Infos

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Autor

Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway.

Inhalt

Preface to the Second Edition

Preface

1 Introduction 1

1.1 THE IMPORTANCE OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS 1

1.2 THE NEED TO DEVELOP A PROPER RISK ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK 3

2 Common Thinking about Risk and Risk Analysis 7

2.1 ACCIDENT RISK 7

2.1.1 Accident Statistics 7

2.1.2 Risk Analysis 11

2.1.3 Reliability Analysis 22

2.2 ECONOMIC RISK 26

2.2.1 General Definitions of Economic Risk in Business and Project

Management 26

2.2.2 A Cost Risk Analysis 28

2.2.3 Finance and Portfolio Theory 29

2.2.4 Treatment of Risk in Project Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 31

2.3 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 33

2.3.1 The Classical Approach 33

2.3.2 The Bayesian Paradigm 34

2.3.3 Economic Risk and Rational Decision-Making 36

2.3.4 Other Perspectives and Applications 37

2.3.5 Conclusions 39

Rezensionen

"The book provides a framework for understanding, conducting and
using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates,
graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering,
finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for
managers facing decision making problems involving risk and
uncertainty." (Zentralblatt

MATH, 1 December 2012)

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 2.2.2012
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Statistik
• Themenwelt: Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Wahrscheinlichkeit / Kombinatorik
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften
• Themenwelt: Technik
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Allgemeines / Lexika
• Schlagworte: Engineering statistics • Qualität, Produktivität u. Zuverlässigkeit • Qualität, Produktivität u. Zuverlässigkeit • Quality, Productivity & Reliability • Risikoanalyse • Statistics • Statistik • Statistik in den Ingenieurwissenschaften
• ISBN-10: 1-119-94578-X / 111994578X
• ISBN-13: 978-1-119-94578-9 / 9781119945789