Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration (eBook)

Ian Lerche, John A. MacKay (Autoren)

eBook Download: PDF

1999 | 1. Auflage
404 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-0-08-050500-8 (ISBN)

Infos

Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration provides a total framework for assessing the uncertainties associated with exploration risk from beginning to end. Numerous examples with accompanying microcomputer algorithms illustrate how to quantitatively approach economic risk. The text compares detailed assumptions and models of economic risk, and presents numerical examples throughout to facilitate hands-on calculations using popular spread-sheet packages on personal computers.

Key Features
* Covers economic risk from exploration through production models
* Brings methods to a level where all can be done on a PC
* Analyzes numerical examples from the real world
* Removes mystery from how economics is done
* Addresses assumptions in models and shows how they influence projections

---

Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration provides a total framework for assessing the uncertainties associated with exploration risk from beginning to end. Numerous examples with accompanying microcomputer algorithms illustrate how to quantitatively approach economic risk. The text compares detailed assumptions and models of economic risk, and presents numerical examples throughout to facilitate hands-on calculations using popular spread-sheet packages on personal computers. - Covers economic risk from exploration through production models- Brings methods to a level where all can be done on a PC- Analyzes numerical examples from the real world- Removes "e;mystery"e; from how economics is done- Addresses assumptions in models and shows how they influence projections

Inhalt

Cover 1
Contents 6
Preface 14
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 18
I. Overview 18
II. Geologic Uncertainty 20
III. Some Statistical Concerns 22
IV. Geotechnical Estimates 25
V. Economic Estimates 26
VI. Risk Estimates 27
VII. Practical Concerns 29
CHAPTER 2. RISK-ADJUSTED VALUE AND WORKING INTEREST 34
I. Introduction 34
II. General Methods of Constructing Working Interest and RAV Formulas 35
III. A Numerical Illustration 40
IV. Negative Expected Values 45
V. Conclusions 47
CHAPTER 3. UNCERTAINTY AND PROBABILITY ESTIMATES FOR RISK-ADJUSTED VALUES AND WORKING INTEREST 48
I. Introduction 48
II. RAV Estimates with Uncertainties 50
III. Discussion and Conclusions 68
CHAPTER 4. PORTFOLIO BALANCING AND RISK-ADJUSTED VALUES UNDER CONSTRAINED BUDGET CONDITIONS 72
I. Introduction 72
II. Deterministic Portfolio Balancing 73
III. Numerical Illustrations with Fixed Parameters: Comparison of Three Opportunities 81
IV. Probabilistic Portfolio Balancing 83
V. Numerical Illustrations with Variable Parameters 85
VI. Comparison of Parabolic and Cozzolino RAV Results 95
VII. Discussion and Conclusions 100
VIII. Appendix: Weighted RAV Optimization 102
CHAPTER 5. SIMILARITY, DEPENDENCE , AND CORRELATlON CONSIDERATIONS FOR RISK-ADJUSTED VALUES AND WORKING INTEREST 104
I. Introduction 104
II. General Arguments 106
III. Correlated Behavior 110
IV. Numerical Illustrations 121
V. Discussion and Conclusions 150
VI. Appendix: Cumulative Depth Considerations for a Single Opportunity 152
CHAPTER 6. MODIFICATIONS TO RISK AVERSION IN HIGH GAIN SITUATIONS 154
I. Introduction 154
II. Modifications to the Cozzolino RAV Formula 157
III. Discussion and Conclusions 175
IV. Appendix A: Modifying Risk Formulas 176
V. Appendix B: Modifications to the Parabolic Risk Aversion Formula 178
CHAPTER 7. CORPORATE FUNDING REQUESTS, FIXED BUDGETS, AND COST BALANCING 180
I. Introduction 180
II. Specific Project Requests 181
III. General Project Requests 184
IV. Multiple Requests, Fixed Budgets, and Funding Strategies 189
V. Appendix: Approximate Probability Behavior for B < Bo
CHAPTER 8. MAXIMIZING OIL FIELD PROFIT IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY 204
I. Introduction 204
II. Nind’s Formula for Present-Day Worth 205
III. Probability and Relative Importance 210
IV. Numerical Example 211
V. Discussion and Conclusions 225
CHAPTER 9. THE VALUE OF ADDED INFORMATION: CATEGORIES OF WORTH 228
I. Introduction 228
II. Increased Expected Value and Decreased Uncertainty 230
III. Constant or Decreased Expected Value and Decreased Uncertainty 237
IV. Unanticipated Benefits of Data Acquisition 242
CHAPTER 10. COUNTING SUCCESSES AND BIDDING STATISTICS ANALYSES 244
I. Introduction 244
II. Corporate Successes and Failures: Simpson’s Paradox 245
III. Bid Analysis and Inferred Corporate Strategies for Lease Sale 249
IV. Block Statistics for Lease Sale 157 and Bid Ratios 259
V. What Is a Bid Worth? 266
CHAPTER 11. ECONOMIC MODEL UNCERTAINTIES 284
I. Introduction 284
II. A Simple Production Model 285
III. A Simple Economic Model 287
IV. Combined Production and Economic Models 291
V. Minimum Average Selling Price 292
VI. Probable Profit Including Uncertainties 293
VII. Numerical Illustrations 295
CHAPTER 12. BAYESIAN UPDATING OF AN OPPORTUNITY 298
I. Introduction 298
II. General Concepts of Bayesian Updating 299
III. Numerical Illustrations 300
IV. Oil Pipeline Spills 311
CHAPTER 13. OPTIONS IN EXPLORATION RISK ANALYSIS 318
I. Introduction 318
II. An Example of Current Option Value and Future Decisions 320
III. Option Value Based on Available Information Only 323
IV. Option Values Based on Future Models 359
V. Appendix A: Including Option Value in Costs 362
VI. Appendix B: Portfolio Balancing Using the Cozzolino Formula 364
VII. Appendix C: Portfolio Balancing with Conservative Optioning 365
Epilogue 368
Appendix: Numerical Methods and Spreadsheets 370
Bibliography 410
Index 418

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 8.1.1999
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Chemie
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geologie
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Elektrotechnik / Energietechnik
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Umwelttechnik / Biotechnologie
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Finanzierung
• ISBN-10: 0-08-050500-7 / 0080505007
• ISBN-13: 978-0-08-050500-8 / 9780080505008