Future of the World's Climate (eBook)

Ann Henderson-Sellers, Kendal McGuffie (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: PDF | EPUB

2011 | 2. Auflage
660 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-0-12-386957-9 (ISBN)

Infos

At a time of so much politicized debate over the phenomenon of global warming, the second edition of The Future of the World's Climate places the discussion in a broader geological, paleo-climatic, and astronomical context. This book is a resource based on reviews of current climate science and supported by sound, accurate data and projections made possible by technological advances in climate modeling. Crucially, this title examines in detail a wide variety of aspects, including human factors like land use, expanding urban climates, and governmental efforts at mitigation, such as the Kyoto Protocol. It also examines large-scale, long-term changes in oceans, glaciers, and atmospheric composition, including tropospheric ozone and aerosols. Weather extremes are addressed, as well as the impact of catastrophic events such as massive volcanism and meteorite impacts. Readers will find a complete picture of the Earth's future climate, delivered by authors drawn from all over the world and from the highest regarded peer-reviewed groups; most are also contributors to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Assessment Reports. - Winner of the 2012 ALSI Choice Award from Atmospheric Science Librarians International - Each chapter has undergone major revisions and new content has been added throughout - More than 200 tables, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs - A cross-disciplinary resource encompassing the geosciences, life science, social science, and engineering

Inhalt

The Future of the World's Climate 4
Copyright 5
Dedication 6
Contents 8
Foreword 16
Preface 18
Abbreviations & Acronyms
Stephen H. Schneider: In Memoriam 26
Introduction-Future Climate 28
Chapter 1 - Seeing Further: The Futurology of Climate 30
1.1 - THE FUTURE OF OUR CLIMATE: INTRODUCTION AND OUTLINE 30
1.2 - GLOBAL WARMING: CLIMATE’S `ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM’ 32
1.3 - THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD’S CLIMATE 38
1.4 - CLIMATE FUTURE OF THE COORONG: COMMUNICATING FROM GLOBAL `GROUND ZERO' 43
1.5 - FUTUROLOGY OF CLIMATE 49
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 52
Section I - The Anthropocene 54
Chapter 2 - People, Policy and Politics in Future Climates 56
2.1 - INTRODUCTION: HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND PARADIGM CHANGE 56
2.2 - THE CHALLENGES OF GOVERNANCE FOR MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE 58
2.3 - A GOVERNANCE APPROACH TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE 58
2.4 - SCIENCE AND POLITICS IN THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME 61
2.5 - THE ROLE OF THE UNFCCC AND KYOTO PROTOCOL 65
2.6 - TOP-DOWN ACTIONS STEMMING FROM INSIDE AND OUTSIDE UNFCCC/KYOTO 67
2.7 - BOTTOM-UP APPROACHES: CIVIL SOCIETY PARTICIPATION AND INFLUENCE 70
2.8 - PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE 71
2.9 - FUTURE UNKNOWNS: LIVING ON A WARMER EARTH? 72
Chapter 3 - Urban Climates and Global Climate Change 74
3.1 - INTRODUCTION: LIVING IN CITIES 74
3.2 - LOCAL AND REGIONAL URBAN CLIMATES: THE BIOPHYSICAL BASIS 77
3.3 - CITIES AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 94
3.4 - CURRENT STATE-OF-THE-ART IN SIMULATING URBAN CLIMATES 99
3.5 - CITIES AND THE FUTURE CLIMATE 102
Chapter 4 - Human Effects on Climate Through Land-Use-Induced Land-Cover Change 104
4.1 - INTRODUCTION: LAND CHANGE AND CLIMATE 104
4.2 - THE SCALE OF HUMAN MODIFICATION 105
4.3 - MECHANISMS/PROCESSES THROUGH WHICH LULCC AFFECTS CLIMATE 107
4.4 - LINKS BETWEEN LULCC AND CLIMATE 112
4.5 - LAND USE AND UNDERSTANDING OUR FUTURE CLIMATE 119
Section II - Time and Tide 124
Chapter 5 - Fast and Slow Feedbacks in Future Climates 126
5.1 - INTRODUCTION: THE SENSITIVE CLIMATE 127
5.2 - FAST-FEEDBACK CLIMATE SENSITIVITY 128
5.3 - SLOW FEEDBACK PROCESSES RELATED TO THE CARBON CYCLE 141
5.4 - COUPLED CLIMATE-CARBON CYCLE MODEL RESULTS AND LINEAR FEEDBACK ANALYSIS 154
5.5 - OTHER SLOW AND LESS-CONSIDERED FEEDBACKS 164
5.6 - CLIMATE FEEDBACKS AND THE FUTURE CLIMATE 166
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 166
Chapter 6 - Variability and Change in the Ocean 168
6.1 - INTRODUCTION: CLIMATE VARIABILITY 168
6.2 - OBSERVED OCEAN VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 169
6.3 - PROJECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE 183
6.4 - OCEAN BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS 187
6.5 - OCEANIC VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 190
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 192
Chapter 7 - Climatic Variability on Decadal to Century Timescales 194
7.1 - INTRODUCTION: OCEANS AND FUTURE CLIMATE 194
7.2 - TROPICAL DECADAL VARIABILITY 198
7.3 - DESCRIPTION OF EXTRA-TROPICAL DECADAL VARIABILITY 200
7.4 - EVIDENCE OF CENTENNIAL VARIABILITY 205
7.5 - THE STOCHASTIC CLIMATE MODEL: THE NULL HYPOTHESIS FOR CLIMATE VARIABILITY 208
7.6 - SUMMARY: FUTURE UNKNOWNS 221
Chapter 8 - The Future of the World's Glaciers 224
8.1 - INTRODUCTION: CLIMATE AND THE CRYOSPHERE 224
8.2 - ELEMENTS 226
8.3 - GLACIER MASS BALANCE 230
8.4 - MODELLING TOOLS 232
8.5 - RECENT AND PRESENT STATES OF THE WORLD’S GLACIERS 235
8.6 - THE OUTLOOK FOR GLACIERS 240
8.7 - REFLECTIONS: GLACIERS AND THE FUTURE CLIMATE 247
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 249
Chapter 9 - Future Regional Climates 250
9.1 - INTRODUCTION: CLOSE-UP OF CLIMATE CHANGE 250
9.2 - REGIONAL-SCALE CLIMATE PHENOMENA 251
9.3 - DOWNSCALING GLOBAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS 259
9.4 - SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY 264
9.5 - ACHIEVING REGIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS 270
9.6 - REGIONALIZING FUTURE CLIMATE 277
Section III - Looking Forward 278
Chapter 10 - Climate and Weather Extremes: Observations, Modelling, and Projections 280
10.1 - INTRODUCTION: EXTREMES OF CLIMATE 280
10.2 - METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES REGARDING THE ANALYSIS OF EXTREMES 287
10.3 - OBSERVED CHANGES IN EXTREMES 295
10.4 - CLIMATE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE EXTREMES 305
10.5 - HOW WELL DO CLIMATE MODELS SIMULATE EXTREMES? 307
10.6 - THE FUTURE 308
10.7 - EXTREMES IN OUR FUTURE CLIMATE 315
Chapter 11 - Interaction Between Future Climate and Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen 316
11.1 - INTRODUCTION: CYCLING TERRESTRIAL NUTRIENTS 316
11.2 - CLIMATE SYSTEM FEEDBACKS 317
11.3 - BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES 319
11.4 - OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS 324
11.5 - MODELLING NITROGEN-CARBON INTERACTIONS 330
11.6 - CONSEQUENCES OF LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER CHANGE FOR CARBON AND NITROGEN CYCLES 334
11.7 - VEGETATION AND THE FUTURE CLIMATE 335
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 335
Chapter 12 - Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions 336
12.1 - INTRODUCTION 337
12.2 - KEY INTERACTIONS IN THE CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY SYSTEM 339
12.3 - TRENDS IN EMISSIONS OF CHEMICAL SPECIES AND IN CHEMICALLY ACTIVE GREENHOUSE COMPOUNDS 344
12.4 - DISTRIBUTION AND CHANGES OF CHEMICAL ACTIVE GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR PRECURSORS 349
12.5 - CLIMATE IMPACT FROM EMISSION CHANGES 364
12.6 - CONTRIBUTIONS TO TROPOSPHERIC CHANGES FROM THE TRANSPORT SECTOR AND FOR DIFFERENT REGIONS 372
12.7 - IMPACT ON TROPOSPHERIC COMPOSITION FROM CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGES IN STRATOSPHERIC COMPOSITION 381
12.8 - CROSS CUTTING ISSUES (POLICY RELATIONS, INTEGRATION) 385
12.9 - SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 390
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 392
Chapter 13 - Climate-Chemistry Interaction: Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols 394
13.1 - ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION, CHEMISTRY, AND CLIMATE 394
13.2 - CLIMATICALLY-IMPORTANT CHEMICAL COMPOUNDS 397
13.3 - CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY INTERACTION OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE 407
13.4 - CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY INTERACTION OF TROPOSPHERIC SULFATE AEROSOLS 414
13.5 - MITIGATION POLICIES FOR CLIMATE AND AIR QUALITY 419
13.6 - FUTURE STUDY OF CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY INTERACTION 424
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 426
Section IV - Learning Lessons 428
Chapter 14 - Records from the Past, Lessons for the Future: What the Palaeorecord Implies about Mechanisms of Global Change 430
14.1 - TIMESCALES OF CLIMATE CHANGE, THEIR CAUSATION, AND DETECTION 430
14.2 - REGIONAL RESPONSES TO MILLENNIAL-SCALE FORCING 442
14.3 - RAPID CLIMATE CHANGES 451
14.4 - BIOSPHERE FEEDBACKS 457
14.5 - LESSONS FROM THE PAST FOR THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGES 459
14.6 - LESSONS FROM THE PAST FOR FUTURE CLIMATES 462
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 463
Chapter 15 - Modelling the Past and Future Interglacials in Response to Astronomical and Greenhouse Gas Forcing 464
15.1 - INTRODUCTION: INTERGLACIALS AND WARM CLIMATE 464
15.2 - MODEL AND EXPERIMENTS USED FOR SIMULATING THE LAST NINE INTERGLACIALS 466
15.3 - PRECESSION AND OBLIQUITY DURING THE INTERGLACIALS 469
15.4 - LATITUDINAL AND SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF INSOLATION 470
15.5 - MODELLING THE GHG AND INSOLATION CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PRE- AND POST-MBE INTERGLACIALS 470
15.6 - GHG AND INSOLATION CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE INDIVIDUAL INTERGLACIAL CLIMATES 474
15.7 - FUTURE OF OUR INTERGLACIAL 485
15.8 - PROBING FUTURE ASTRO-CLIMATES 488
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 489
Chapter 16 - Catastrophe: Extraterrestrial Impacts, Massive Volcanism, and the Biosphere 490
16.1 - INTRODUCTION: WHAT IS A CLIMATE CATASTROPHE? 490
16.2 - MASSIVE VOLCANISM: CASE STUDY OF THE TRIASSIC-JURASSIC (TR-J) EVENT 491
16.3 - EXTRATERRESTRIAL IMPACTS: CASE STUDY OF THE END-CRETACEOUS EVENTS 499
16.4 - THE POTENTIAL OF THE K-PG IMPACT TO CAUSE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 503
16.5 - COMPARISON OF THE TR-J AND K-PG EVENTS 510
16.6 -`DEEP-TIME' CONTEXT FOR ANTHROPOGENIC ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATE CHANGE 511
16.7 - FUTURE CLIMATE CATASTROPHES 512
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 512
Section V - Understanding the Unknowns 514
Chapter 17 - Future Climate Surprises 516
17.1 - INTRODUCTION: PROBING FUTURE CLIMATES 516
17.2 - DEFINING CLIMATE SURPRISES 517
17.3 - MELTING OF LARGE MASSES OF ICE 520
17.4 - CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CIRCULATION 522
17.5 - LOSS OF BIOMES 524
17.6 - COPING WITH CLIMATE SURPRISES 525
17.7 - FUTURE CLIMATE: SURPRISES, RESPONSES, AND RECOVERY STRATEGIES 532
17.8 - CONCLUSION: GAPS IN KNOWLEDGE 534
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 534
Chapter 18 - Future Climate: One Vital Component of Trans-disciplinary Earth System Science 536
18.1 - GAIA AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE 536
18.2 - HUMANS IN THE EARTH SYSTEM 547
18.3 - TRANS-DISCIPLINARY EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE 552
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 556
Bibliography 558
Index 650
Editors' Biographies 666
Biographies 668

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 3.11.2011
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Meteorologie / Klimatologie
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Bauwesen
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Umwelttechnik / Biotechnologie
• ISBN-10: 0-12-386957-9 / 0123869579
• ISBN-13: 978-0-12-386957-9 / 9780123869579