Climate Change and Policy (eBook)

The Calculability of Climate Change and the Challenge of Uncertainty

Gabriele Gramelsberger, Johann Feichter (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: PDF

2011 | 2011
VIII, 241 Seiten
Springer Berlin (Verlag)
978-3-642-17700-2 (ISBN)

Infos

The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances.

As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future.

But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail?

The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail?

Gabriele Gramelsberger is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project

is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project

Gabriele Gramelsberger investigates as a science philosopher at the FU Berlin the influence of computer based simulations as new scientific tools for knowledge production, in particular in climate research. Since 2002 she is a member of the BBAW initiative 'Science Policy Studies'. 2007 she received the Blankesee-Colloquium Award from the presidents of the Berlin universities and academies.

 

            Johann Feichter is head of the group 'Aerosols, Clouds and Climate' at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg. He worked on the development of the German climate model and contributed to the 3^rd and 4^th IPCC assessment reports.

Inhalt

Contents 8
Foreword 6
Chapter 1: Introduction to the Volume 10
References 17
Chapter 2: Modelling the Climate System: An Overview 18
2.1 Understanding the Climate System 19
2.1.1 Climate Stability 19
2.1.2 The Physical and Mechanical Understanding of Climate 20
2.1.3 Greenhouse Effect and Climate Sensitivity 24
2.1.4 Climate Variability 27
2.2 The Need for Numerical Models in Science 28
2.2.1 From Observation to Forecasting 28
2.2.2 Meteorology as Physics of the Atmosphere 32
2.2.3 Limitations of Analysis and the Need for Numerical Methods 35
2.2.4 Introduction of Computers and Forecasting Algorithms 37
2.3 Calculating the Climate System 40
2.3.1 The Advent of Computational Meteorology 41
2.3.2 Model Building-Dynamic Core 44
2.3.3 Model Building-Subscale Parametrization 47
2.3.4 Simulation Runs 51
2.4 International Coordination of Climate Modelling 53
2.4.1 The International Structure of Climate Research 54
2.4.2 Standardization of Methods, Formats, and Data 59
2.4.3 Community-Based Cyberinfrastructure 62
2.4.4 The IPCC Rhythm of Model Development and CMIP 67
2.5 Climate Projections and the Challenge of Uncertainty 71
2.5.1 Mankind´s Dream of Rational Forecasting 72
2.5.2 The Challenge of Uncertainty 74
2.5.3 Climate Scenarios and Storylines 78
2.5.4 Model Evaluation and Intercomparison 82
2.6 Scientific Arguments for Socio-Political Decisions 88
References 92
Chapter 3: Climate Simulation, Uncertainty, and Policy Advice - The Case of the IPCC 100
3.1 Introduction 100
3.2 The IPCC as a Boundary Organization Between Science and Politics 102
3.3 The IPCC Review Process 107
3.4 Sceptical Criticism of the IPCC Review Process 111
3.5 Negotiating the Wording of the Summary for Policymakers 115
3.6 Conclusion 117
References 119
Chapter 4: Dealing with Uncertainty - From Climate Research to Integrated Assessment of Policy Options 121
4.1 Introduction 121
4.2 Uncertainty in GMT Projections 123
4.3 Estimating the Proximity to Thresholds 127
4.4 Extracting Response Time Scales 128
4.5 Climate Projection Statistics as a Philosophical Battlefield 128
4.6 Deriving Sustainable Solutions Under Uncertainty 131
References 132
Chapter 5: Uncertainty in Climate Policy - Impacts on Market Mechanisms 135
5.1 Introduction 135
5.2 Uncertainty in International Climate Policy 137
5.3 The State of the Carbon Market and the Influence of Real and Perceived Uncertainties on Prices of Carbon 139
5.3.1 The Regulatory Framework of the Carbon Market 139
5.3.2 Pricing of Emission Credits 142
5.4 Interaction of Key Actors in the Kyoto/CDM Market and Their Influence and Challenges with Uncertainty 146
5.4.1 External Market Actors 146
5.4.2 Internal Actors 148
5.5 Conclusion and Final Remarks 150
References 150
Chapter 6: Insuring Climate Change - Managing Political and Economic Uncertainties in Flood Management 153
6.1 Introduction 153
6.2 The Insurability of Natural Hazards 155
6.3 The Varying Insurability of Floods 156
6.3.1 Insurable, Hence Insured 157
6.3.2 Not Insured, but Insurable 158
6.3.3 Ambiguity: Insured, yet Uninsurable 159
6.3.4 Discussion 159
6.4 Risk 160
6.5 Analysis and Concluding Remarks 163
References 164
Chapter 7: Climate Science, Weather and Climate Engineering, and Scientific Objectivity 167
7.1 Introduction 167
7.2 The Science of Weather Modification 167
7.3 Climate Variability 169
7.4 Climate Engineering and Politics 173
7.5 The Science vs. Politics Conflict 174
References 176
Chapter 8: Utilizing Participatory Scenario-Based Approaches to Design Proactive Responses to Climate Change in the Face of Uncertainties 178
8.1 Introduction 178
8.2 Key Characteristics and Approaches for Dealing with Climate Change Uncertainty 180
8.2.1 Characteristics of Climate Change Uncertainties 180
8.2.2 Dealing with Uncertainty to Promote Mitigation and Adaptation Responses to Climate Change 182
8.3 British Columbia Case Studies 185
8.3.1 The Georgia Basin Futures Project 185
8.3.2 The Local Climate Change Visioning Project 189
8.4 Opportunities for Designing Responses to Climate Change despite Uncertainties 193
References 195
Chapter 9: Image Politics: Picturing Uncertainty. The Role of Images in Climatology and Climate Policy 198
9.1 What is Expected of Informational Images 198
9.2 The Status of Scientific Images 200
9.3 An Abnormal Truth 201
9.4 The Red Blade of a Hockey Stick 205
9.5 Collages of Time and Space: Picturing Possible Futures 210
9.6 Conclusions: The Role of Pictures of Climate Change 212
References 214
About the Authors 217
Abbreviations and Glossary 222
Index 242

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 30.3.2011
• Zusatzinfo: VIII, 241 p.
• Verlagsort: Berlin
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geografie / Kartografie
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung
• Themenwelt: Technik
• Schlagworte: climate change • Climate Change Management • climate research • Computer Based Research • Environmental Policy • Environmental Sciences • meteorology • Sociology
• ISBN-10: 3-642-17700-X / 364217700X
• ISBN-13: 978-3-642-17700-2 / 9783642177002