HERMES: Harmonised Econometric Research for Modelling Economic Systems (eBook)

Commission of the European Commission of the European Com (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: PDF

2014 | 1. Auflage
726 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-1-4832-9758-3 (ISBN)

Infos

The 'HERMES' European system of models is featured in this book. This system was set up at the initiative of the Commission of the European Communities (Directorate-General for Science, Research and Development). It involves a series of medium term, macrosectoral econometric models in which energy plays a special role as a production factor. The different models are interlinked by a bilateral flow module, which describes for each product the trade between all the Community countries taken in twos. The United States, Japan and five zones are represented in this by simplified versions of the Commission's COMET model.

This volume will help the reader to understand and interpret the numerous studies which have been undertaken with the help of the HERMES system. Economists and researchers will find valuable information and figures, with a common nomenclature, on the economies of the different countries, both on structural data and on economic operators.

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The "e;HERMES"e; European system of models is featured in this book. This system was set up at the initiative of the Commission of the European Communities (Directorate-General for Science, Research and Development). It involves a series of medium term, macrosectoral econometric models in which energy plays a special role as a production factor. The different models are interlinked by a bilateral flow module, which describes for each product the trade between all the Community countries taken in twos. The United States, Japan and five zones are represented in this by simplified versions of the Commission's COMET model.This volume will help the reader to understand and interpret the numerous studies which have been undertaken with the help of the HERMES system. Economists and researchers will find valuable information and figures, with a common nomenclature, on the economies of the different countries, both on structural data and on economic operators.

Inhalt

Front Cover 1
Hermes: Harmonised Econometric Research for Modelling Economic Systems 4
Copyright Page 5
Table of Contents 6
Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION 8
Chapter 2. HISTORY AND PERSPECTIVE OF THE HERMES PROJECT 10
The Consequences of Oil Price Decreases (1986)[6]: 12
The Convergence of the VAT Rates in the Community (1987 [7]: 13
Alternative Financing for the Social Security Budget (1987) [8]: 13
The Completion of the Internal Market (1988): 13
Reduction/Reorganisation of the Working Time (1988) [ 9 ] : 13

Taxes on Energy as a Way to Reduce CO2 Emissions (1990) [11]: 14
Impact of New Information Technologies on Employment (1990) [12]: 15
Role of the Community Structural Fund (1990) [13]: 16
Sectoral European Forecasts - Club HERMES Forecast (since 1988) [14]: 17
References 18
Chapter 3. THE HERMES MODEL FOR THE MEMBER STATES OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY 22
Introduction 22
1. General Characteristics of the HERMES Models 23
2. Supply Dynamics and the Sectoral Approach 31
3. Household Behaviour 45
4. Determination of Nominal Values 53
5. Foreign Trade 60
6. A Simplified Overview of the Function of the Models 65
References 68
Chapter 4. HERMES: A MACROSECTORAL MODEL FOR THE BELGIAN ECONOMY 72
1. Introduction 72
2. The Structure of the Belgian Model 73
3. Selected Model Blocks 75
4. Simulation Experiments with HERMES 102
5. Conclusions 115
6. Acknowledgements 118
References 118
Chapter 5. HERMES : A MACROSECTORAL MODEL FOR THE DUTCH ECONOMY 120
1. Introduction 120
2. Production Sectors 122
3· Households 148
4. External Trade 158
References 165
1. Retrospective Simulations 167
2. Dynamic Mechanisms 167
Chapter 6. HERMES: AMACROSECTORALMODELFOR THE FRENCH ECONOMY 212
1. Introduction 212
2. Production Sectors 216
3. Households 232
4. Foreign Trade 240
5. The Energy Sub-model 244
References 251
1. Retrospective Simulations 256
2. Simulation Mechanisms 261
Chapter 7. HERMES: A MACROSECTORAL MODEL FOR THE GERMAN ECONOMY 284
1. Introduction 284
2. Estimates of the Production Block of the German HERMES Model 287
3. Estimates of the Consumption Block 300
4. The Wage and Price Block 305
5. The Foreign Trade Block 311
6. The Public Sector 317
7. Simulation and Projection 319
References 330
Chapter 8. HERMES: A MACROSECTORAL MODEL FOR THE IRISH ECONOMY 334
Section 1. Introduction 334
Section 2. The HERMES Model Specification: An Exposition 340
Section 3. The Production Sectors 354
Section 4. Households 382
Section 5. External Trade 387
Section 6. Government Fiscal Activities and Debt Financing 392
Section 7. The Structure of Energy Supplies 406
Section 8. Retrospective Simulations: 1967–1984 410
Section 9. The Behaviour of the HERMES-Ireland Model 417
Section 10· Dynamic Mechanisms – The Model's Multipliers 424
Section 11. Conclusion 453
References 454
Chapter 9. HERMES : A MACROSECTORAL MODEL FOR THE ITALIAN ECONOMY 460
1. Introduction 460
2. The Input-Output Structure of the Model 462
3· Determining Quantities and Prices: A Synthetic View 464
4. Demand for Production Factors 466
5. Employment and the Labour Force 478
6. Prices and Wages 482
7. Consumption 486
8. Residential Investments 493
9 . Foreign Trade 493
10. The Public Sector 499
11. The Monetary Sector 510
12. Simulation Over the Sample Period: 1977-1987 510
13. Multiplier Exercises 517
14. An Econometric Analysis of an Oil Shock 528
References 537
Chapter 10. HERMES: A MACROSECTORAL MODEL FOR THE UK ECONOMY 540
1. Introduction 540
2. Production Sectors 542
3. Households 550
1. Introduction 562
2. Results 563
1. 1% Nominal Wage Rate Reduction 565
2. 1% of GDP Reduction in Employers' Social Security Contributions 567
3. 1% of GDP Increase in Government Investment 569
4. Depreciation of the Pound by 10% in 1986 571
5· Reduction in World Energy Prices by 10% 573
References 575
Chapter 11. ISOLATED, LINKED AND COORDINATED VARIANTS 576
1. Introduction 576
2. Introduction of the economic policy variant 577
3. Variant Mechanisms and Results 578
4. Comparison Between Simulations (1) and (2) 579
5. Comparison of Simulations (2) and (3) 583
6. Conclusions 583
Chapter 12. COMPLETION OF THE INTERNAL MARKET: RESULTS OF MACROECONOMIC MODEL SIMULATIONS 586
Introduction 586
1. Methodology 587
2. The Elimination of Customs Controls 589
3. Opening Up of Public Procurement 598
4. Financial Services and Capital Market Integration 610
5. Supply Effects 619
6. Completing the Internal Market: Overall Assessment and Inter- Country Comparison 629
References 642
Chapter 13. APPENDICES 650
APPENDIX I: LIST OF VARIABLES 650
APPENDIX II: STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL 690
APPENDIX III: DERIVATION OF THE FACTOR DEMAND EQUATIONS USING SPECIFIC PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS 714

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 28.6.2014
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Schulbuch / Wörterbuch ► Lexikon / Chroniken
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Allgemeines / Lexika
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Ökonometrie
• ISBN-10: 1-4832-9758-6 / 1483297586
• ISBN-13: 978-1-4832-9758-3 / 9781483297583