Für diesen Artikel ist leider kein Bild verfügbar.

Completing the Forecast

Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts

National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts (Autoren)

Buch | Hardcover

124 Seiten

2006
National Academies Press (Verlag)
978-0-309-38488-9 (ISBN)

Titel ist leider vergriffen;
keine Neuauflage

Artikel merken

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition. Table of Contents

Front Matter
Summary
1 Introduction
2 Uncertainty in Decision Making
3 Estimating and Validating Uncertainty
4 Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
5 Overarching Recommendations
References
Appendix A: Acronyms and Initialisms
Appendix B: List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process
Appendix C: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff

1 Front Matter; 2 Summary; 3 1 Introduction; 4 2 Uncertainty in Decision Making; 5 3 Estimating and Validating Uncertainty; 6 4 Communicating Forecast Uncertainty; 7 5 Overarching Recommendations; 8 References; 9 Appendix A: Acronyms and Initialisms; 10 Appendix B: List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process; 11 Appendix C: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff

Erscheint lt. Verlag	9.10.2006
Verlagsort	Washington
Sprache	englisch
Maße	216 x 279 mm
Themenwelt	Sachbuch/Ratgeber ► Natur / Technik ► Natur / Ökologie
	Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Hydrologie / Ozeanografie
	Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Meteorologie / Klimatologie
ISBN-10	0-309-38488-5 / 0309384885
ISBN-13	978-0-309-38488-9 / 9780309384889
Zustand	Neuware