Surviving 1000 Centuries (eBook)

Can We Do It?

Roger-Maurice Bonnet, Lodewyk Woltjer (Autoren)

eBook Download: PDF

2010 | 2008
XXVI, 422 Seiten
Springer New York (Verlag)
978-0-387-74635-7 (ISBN)

Infos

The circumstances that will shape the long-term future of our planet will be constrained by what is physically possible and what is not. This full color book provides a quantitative view of our civilization over the next 100,000 years, in comparison to the 40-60,000 years it took for modern humans to emerge from Africa, on the basis of contemporary scientific and technological knowledge. The evolution of the Earth's atmosphere and the origin of water are highlighted as the most important factors for the emergence and the development of life.

The authors consider both cosmic and natural hazards, pointing out that scientific information provided by satellites and communication systems on the ground could prevent many unnecessary casualties by forward planning and the installation of elementary precautions. The Earth's evolving climate is considered, showing how greenhouse gases have played an important role in the past climate, whereas human industrial and agricultural emissions will greatly impact our future.

Dr R M Bonnet and Dr L Woltjer are outstanding, internationally renowned scientists. During his long tenure at the European Space Agency, Dr Bonnet has directed the launch of 17 artificial scientific satellites, initiating the development of the Huygens probe placed on the NASA Cassini Saturn Orbiter which landed on Titan on 14 January 2005, developing the successful Mars Express mission and directing the SMART-1 European lunar mission. He is President of COSPAR and Executive Director of ISSI and has acquired a world reputation in the field of space politics. After 11 years at Columbia University, NY, Dr Woltjer returned to Europe as Director General of ESO for 13 years. Since then he has worked closely with the Observatories de Haute Provence in France and the University of Florence in Italy, was President of the International Astronomical Union and Chairman of the Space Science Advisory Committee of ESA for 4 years.

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The circumstances that will shape the long-term future of our planet will be constrained by what is physically possible and what is not. This book provides a quantitative view of our civilization over the next 100,000 years, in comparison to the 40-60,000 years it took for modern humans to emerge from Africa, on the basis of contemporary scientific and technological knowledge. The first 5 chapters provide the general scientific background, starting with a brief history of our planet, from its formation 4.5 billion years ago until the present day. The evolution of the Earth's atmosphere and the origin of water are highlighted as being the most important factors for the emergence and the development of life, especially in comparison to Earth's neighbours, Venus and Mars. The authors then consider both cosmic and natural hazards, pointing out that scientific information provided by satellites and communication systems on the ground could prevent many unnecessary casualties by forward planning and the installation of elementary precautions.The changing climate in the past and in the future is considered, showing how atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2 and methane played an important role in past climates, whereas future human industrial and agricultural emissions of greenhouse gases largely determine the future climate. The authors highlight the importance of long term monitoring and control of the atmospheric composition. Chapter 7 looks at future energy and inorganic resources, the needs for which in the year 100,000 will be five times larger than the present ones. The most likely sources will be from fusion, solar and wind energy, and storage facilities will be needed for the latter two. Water, agriculture and forests are considered in the following chapter: although adequate food and water should be available worldwide, inadequate management may cause some densely populated areas to experience shortages. The colonization of other planets, in particular Mars and Venus, and the possibility of extracting resources from the Moon or asteroids are discussed in Chapter 9. The final chapters stress the importance of international collaboration to manage Earth's future, together with the crucial role of space for its monitoring, surveillance and management. Cooperative world governance and global laws should be undertaken by the political, scientific and space worlds and encompass both the rich and poorer countries.

Inhalt

Table of Contents 
5 
List of Illustrations 
10 
Foreword 
14 
Preface 
16 
Acknowledgments 
18 
1 Introduction 
19 
1.1 Why a hundred thousand years ? 
19 
1.2 People and resources 
23 
1.3 Management and cooperarion 
25 
1.4 The overall plan of the book 
27 
1.5 Notes and references 
29 
2 A Brief History of the Earth 
30 
2.1 The age of the Earth 
30 
2.2 Geological timescales 
33 
2.3 The formation of the Moon and the Late Heavy Bombardment 
35 
2.4 Continents and plate tectonics 
40 
2.4.1 Continents 
40 
2.4.2 Plate tectonics 
41 
2.4.3 The Earth's magnetic field 
45 
2.4 Evolution ofthe Earth's atmosphere 
48 
2.6 Life and evolution 
52 
2.6.1 The early fossils in the Archean 
52 
2.6.2 The Proterozoic and the apparition of oxygen 
54 
2.6.3 The Neo-Proterozoic: the Ediacarans and the 'snowball earth' 
55 
2.6.4 The Phanerozoic, life extinctions 
60 
2.7 Conclusion 
65 
2.8 Notes and references 
65 
3 Cosmic Menaces 
70 
3.1 Introduction 
70 
3.2 Galactic hazards 
71 
3.2.1 The death of the Sun 
74 
3.2.2 Encounters with interstellar clouds and stars 
74 
3.2.3 Supernovae explosions, UV radiation and cosmic rays 
76 
3.2.4 Gamma-ray bursts and magnetars 
77 
3.3 Solar System hazards 
79 
3.3.1 Past tracks of violence 
79 
3.3.2 The nature of the impactors: asteroids and comets 
83 
3.3.3 Estimating the danger 
90 
3.3.4 The bombardment continues 
93 
3.3.5 Mitigation measures 
97 
3.3.6 Deviation from the dangerous path 
97 
3.3.7 Decision making 
101 
3.3.8 Space debris 
102 
3.4 Conclusion 
106 
3.5 Notes and references 
106 
4 Terrestrial Hazards 
109 
4.1 Introduction 
109 
4.2 Diseases 
111 
4.2.1 How old shall we be in 1,000 centuries? 
114 
4.2.2 How tall shall we be in 1,000 centuries ? 
116 
4.3 Seismis hazards: the threat of volcanoes 
118 
4.3.1 Volcanoes and tectonic activity 
118 
4.3.2 The destructive power of volcanoes 
122 
4.3.3 Volcanoes and climate change 
125 
4.3.4 Forecasting eruptions 
128 
4.4 Seismic hazards: the threat of earthquakes 
131 
4.4.1 Measuring the power of earthquakes 
135 
4.4.2 Earthquake forecasting 
136 
4.4.3 Mitigation against earthquakes 
141 
4.5 Tsunamis 
141 
4.5.1 What are they ? 
141 
4.5.2 The 26 December 2004 tsunami 
143 
4.5.3 Forecasting tsunamis and mitigation approaches 
144 
4.6 Climatic hazards 
148 
4.6.1 Storms: cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons, ect. 
148 
4.6.2 Floods 
153 
4.6.3 Droughts 
158 
4.7 Conclusion 
162 
4.8 Notes and references 
164 
5 The Changing Climate 
168 
5.1 Miscellaneous evidence of climate change 
168 
5.2 The global climate system 
171 
5.3 Climates in the distant past 
175 
5.4 The recent ice ages 
178 
5.5 Recent climate 
186 
5.6 Changes in the Sun 
189 
5.7 Volcanic eruptions 
191 
5.8 Anthropogenic CO2 
192 
5.9 Interpretation of the recent record 
193 
5.10 The ozone hole 
194 
5.11 Notes and references 
197 
6 Climate Futures 
201 
6.1 Scenarios for future climates 
202 
6.2 Geographic distribution of warming 
208 
6.3 Sea level 
211 
6.4 The 100,000-year climate future 215
6.5 Doubts 
219 
6.6 Consequences of climate change 
220 
6.7 Appendix 
221 
6.7.1 The four main SRES scenarios 
221 
6.8 Notes and references 
223 
7 The Future of Survivability: Energy and Inorganic Resources 
226 
7.1 Energy for 100,000 years 
226 
7.1.1 Energy requirements for the 100,000-year world 
228 
7.1.2 Minor energy source for the long-term future 
230 
7.1.3 Wind energy 
232 
7.1.4 Solar energy 
234 
7.1.5 Biofuels 
236 
7.1.6 Nuclear energy 
238 
7.1.7 Fusion energy 
241 
7.2. Energy for the present century 
245 
7.2.1 Fossil carbon fuels 
245 
7.2.2 Electricity and renewables 
249 
7.2.3 From now to then 
249 
7.3 Elements and minerals 
251 
7.3.1 Abundances and formation of the elements 
251 
7.3.2 The composition of the Earth 
254 
7.3.3 Mineral resources 
255 
7.3.4 The present outlook 
257 
7.3.5 Mineral resources for 100,000 years 
258 
7.4 Conclusion 
263 
7.5 Notes and references 
263 
8 The Future of Survivability: Water and Organic Resources 
266 
8.1 Water 
266 
8.1.1 The water cycle 
267 
8.1.2 Water use and water stress 
268 
8.1.3 Remedial measures 
270 
8.1.4 Water for 100,000 years 
273 
8.1.5 From now to then: water and climate change 
275 
8.2 Agriculture 276
8.2.1 Increasing productivity 
276 
8.2.2 Present and past land use 
278 
8.2.3 Population 
279 
8.2.4 Agricultural land and production 
279 
8.2.5 Irrigation 
280 
8.2.6 Fertilizers and pesticides 
280 
8.2.7 Top soil 
281 
8.2.8 Agriculture for 100,000 years 
282 
8.2.9 From now to then 
284 
8.3 Forests and wilderness 
284 
8.3.1 Deforestation 
286 
8.4 Conclusion 
289 
8.5 Notes and references 
289 
9 Leaving Earth: From Dreams to Reality ? 
293 
9.1 Introduction 
293 
9.2 Where to go ? 
294 
9.2.1 The case of Venus 
296 
9.2.2 The case of Mars 
300 
9.2.3 Other worlds 
306 
9.2.4 Interrtellar travel 
309 
9.2.5 Space cities? 
311 
9.3 What to do with the Moon? 
312 
9.3.1 The Lunar Space Station 
313 
9.3.2 The Moon as a scientific base 
314 
9.3.3 The Moon for non-scientific exploitation 
315 
9.3.4 Resources from outside the Earth-Moon system: planets and asteroids 
318 
9.4 Terraforming the Earth 
320 
9.4.1 Absorbing or storing CO2 
320 
9.4.2 Cooling down the Earth 
321 
9.5 Conclusion 
323 
9.6 Notes and references 
323 
10 Managing the Planet's Future: The Crucial Role of Space 
327 
10.1 Introduction 
327 
10.2 The specific needs for space observations of the Earth 
328 
10. 2.1 The Earth's Interior 
328 
10.2.2 Water: the hydrosphere and the cryosphere 
331 
10.2.3 The atmosphere 
335 
10.2.4 The biosphere 
339 
10.3 The tools and methods of space 
341 
10.3.1 The best orbits for Earth observation 
342 
10.3.2 Geodesy and altimetry satellites: measuring the shapes of the Earth 
343 
10.3.3 Global Positioning Systems 
349 
10.3.4 Synthetic Aperture Radars 
351 
10.3.5 Optical imaging 
359 
10.3.6 Remote-sensing spectroscopy 
362 
10.3.7 Radiometry 
366 
10.3.8 Monitoring astronomical and solar influences 
369 
10.4 Conclusion 
374 
10.5 Notes and references 
375 
11.Managing the Planet's Future: Setting-Up the Structures 
378 
11.1 Introduction 
378 
11.2 The alert phase: need for a systematic scientific approach 
379 
11.2.1 Forecasting the weather: the 'easy' case 
379 
11.2.2 The scientific alert phase: the example of the IPCC 
383 
11.2.3 Organizing the space tools 387
11.3 The indispensable political involvement 
392 
11.3.1 The crucial role of the United States, China and India 
392 
11.3.2 A perspective view on the political perception 
395 
11.3.3 The emotional perception: the scene is moving 
404 
11.4 Conclusion: towards world ecoligical governance? 
408 
11.5 Notes and references 
410 
12 Conclusion 
414 
12.1 Limiting population growth 
414 
12.2 Stabilizing global warming 
416 
12.3 The limits of vessel-Earth 
417 
12.4 The crucial role of education and science 
418 
12.5 New governance required 
419 
12.6 The difficult and urgent transition phase 
421 
12.7 Adapting to as static society 
422 
12.8 Notes and references 
424 
Index 
425 

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 2.4.2010
• Reihe/Serie: Popular Science
• Reihe/Serie: Popular Science
• Reihe/Serie: Springer Praxis Books
• Reihe/Serie: Springer Praxis Books
• Zusatzinfo: XX, 422 p. 106 illus., 70 illus. in color.
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Sachbuch/Ratgeber ► Natur / Technik ► Weltraum / Astronomie
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Physik / Astronomie ► Astronomie / Astrophysik
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Elektrotechnik / Energietechnik
• Schlagworte: climate change • end of civilization • energy technology changes • global catastrophe • Greenhouse Gas • human extinction • renewable energy • Satellite • Star • survival of humankind • Technological Sustainability • Wind
• ISBN-10: 0-387-74635-8 / 0387746358
• ISBN-13: 978-0-387-74635-7 / 9780387746357