Limits of Predictability
Seiten
1993
Springer Berlin (Hersteller)
978-3-540-56277-1 (ISBN)
Springer Berlin (Hersteller)
978-3-540-56277-1 (ISBN)
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Presents a broad-ranging discussion of the extent to which science and mathematics enable one to predict, and therby control, the future. Examples are taken from physical, biological and socio-economic systems.
One of the driving forces behind much of modern science and technology is the desire to foresee and thereby control the future. In recent years, however, it has become clear that, even in a deterministic world, there is a limit to the accuracy with which we can predict the future. This book details, in a largely non-technical style, the extent to which we can predict the future development of various physical, biological and socio-economic processes.
Contents: Introduction.- Forecasting Weather and Climate.- How an Active Autowave Medium Can Be Used to Predict the Future.- Synergetics, Predictability and Deterministic Chaos.- The Information-Theoretic Approach to Assessing the Reliability of Forecasts.- Prediction of Time Series.- Fundamental and Practical Limits of Predictability.- The Future is Foreseeable but not Predictable: The 'Oedipus Effect' in Social Forecasting.- The Self-Organization of American Society in Presidential and Senatorial Elections.- Problems of Predictability in Ethnogenic Studies.
| Reihe/Serie | Springer Series in Synergetics ; 60 |
|---|---|
| Zusatzinfo | 62 figs. |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Gewicht | 534 g |
| Einbandart | gebunden |
| Schlagworte | Dynamisches System • Prognose • Springer Series in Synergetics; Vol 60 • Zukunftsforschung |
| ISBN-10 | 3-540-56277-X / 354056277X |
| ISBN-13 | 978-3-540-56277-1 / 9783540562771 |
| Zustand | Neuware |
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