Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters (eBook)

The E-CAT Software Tool

Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole, Eric Warren (Autoren)

eBook Download: PDF

2017 | 1st ed. 2017
XLV, 137 Seiten
Springer Singapore (Verlag)
978-981-10-2567-9 (ISBN)

Infos

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches.

The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a 'reduced form' model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

Adam Rose: Price School of Public Policy and Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California

Fynnwin Prager: College of Business Administration and Public Policy, California State University, Dominguez Hills

Zhenhua Chen: Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California

Samrat Chatterjee: Applied Statistics and Computational Modeling, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Dan Wei: Price School of Public Policy and Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California

Nathaniel Heatwole: Acumen, LLC

Eric Warren: Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California

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This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches.The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "e;reduced form"e; model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

Inhalt

Dedication 6
Foreword to the IDRiM Book Series 7
Japan 7
Disaster Prevention Research Institute 7
International Collaboration 8
Major Research Contributions 9
Europe 11
Integration via Regulation: European Union Experience 11
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 14
The USA 16
Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research 16
Natural Hazards Center 18
Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) 19
Low-Income Countries 21
National Interdisciplinary Centers in the Global North 22
International Centers 23
National and Regional Centers in the Global South 24
Summary 25
Other Contributions 26
Conclusion 28
References 28
Preface 33
References 7
Contents 38
About the Authors 41
Chapter 1: Introduction 44
1.1 Objectives 44
1.2 The CREATE Economic Consequence Analysis Framework 45
1.3 Reduced Form Analysis 47
1.4 Overview 48
1.5 Conclusion 50
References 51
Chapter 2: Enumeration of Categories of Economic Consequences 52
2.1 Introduction 52
2.2 Economic Consequence Categories 52
2.3 Application to the Ebola Virus 58
2.4 Estimating the Numerical Values of Biothreat Impact Categories 59
2.5 Conclusion 60
References 60
Chapter 3: Threat Scenarios and Direct Impacts 61
3.1 Introduction 61
3.2 Earthquakes 61
3.2.1 Conversion to CGE Drivers 63
3.2.2 Enumeration of Impact Categories 63
3.3 Human Pandemic 68
3.3.1 Scenario 68
3.3.2 Conversion to CGE Drivers 68
3.3.2.1 Additional Modeling Elements 68
3.3.3 Enumeration of Impact Categories 70
References 72
Chapter 4: Computable General Equilibrium Modeling and Its Application 73
4.1 Summary 73
4.2 CGE Modeling 73
4.3 USCGE Model 74
4.4 CGE Drivers Used to Simulate E-CAT Threats 75
4.5 Detailed CGE Analysis of the Human Pandemic Case 79
4.5.1 Modeling Approaches and Results for Individual Impact Categories 80
4.5.1.1 Workforce Participation 80
4.5.1.2 Medical Expenditures 80
4.5.1.3 Aversion Behavior 81
Reductions in International Travel - Inbound and Outbound 81
Inbound International Travel 83
Outbound International Travel 84
Domestic Tourism and Leisure Spending 84
Other Avoidance Behaviors 86
4.5.2 Discussion of National Results 86
4.5.2.1 Direct Impacts and the Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination 86
4.5.2.2 Total (CGE) Impacts 87
Key General Equilibrium Impacts 87
4.5.2.3 Sector Impacts 91
Policy-Relevant (Actionable) Findings 92
Appendix 4A: Calculation of Input Data for Mild and Severe Influenza Outbreaks 92
4.A.1 Without Vaccination 98
4.A.2 With Vaccination 101
References 106
Chapter 5: User Interface Variables 108
5.1 Summary 108
5.2 User Interface Variable Identification 108
5.3 Randomized Draws of User Interface Variable Combinations 116
5.4 Conversion of Random Draw Combinations to CGE Inputs 116
References 117
Chapter 6: Estimation of the Reduced Form Coefficients for the E-CAT User Interface 118
6.1 Random Sampling Procedure 118
6.2 CGE Simulation with Loop Function 121
6.3 Econometric Analysis 122
References 126
Chapter 7: Uncertainty Analysis 128
7.1 Introduction 128
7.2 Overview 128
7.3 Uncertainty Quantification Tasks 129
7.4 Uncertainty Representation 129
7.5 Uncertainty Propagation 130
7.6 Uncertainty Visualization 132
References 137
Chapter 8: Validation of Computable General Equilibrium Based Models 139
8.1 Introduction 139
8.2 Validation Criteria and Their Application to CGE Models 139
8.3 Model Testing Procedures and CGE Models 141
8.4 Model Validation Applications 143
8.4.1 In-Sample Validation 143
8.4.2 Cross-Validation Test 144
References 147
Chapter 9: E-CAT User Interface Tool 149
Appendix A: USCGE Model Description 155
A.1 Overview 155
A.2 Producers 156
A.3 International Trade 159
A.4 Households 159
A.5 Government 160
A.6 USCGE Model Equations 160
References 169
Appendix B: E-CAT User Guide 171
B.1 Step 1: User Interface 171
B.2 Step 2: User Inputs 172
B.3 Step 3: Completion/Continuation 173
Appendix C: The E-CAT Tool Software 176

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 13.4.2017
• Reihe/Serie: Integrated Disaster Risk Management
• Reihe/Serie: Integrated Disaster Risk Management
• Zusatzinfo: XLV, 137 p. 28 illus., 14 illus. in color.
• Verlagsort: Singapore
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
• Themenwelt: Technik
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Allgemeines / Lexika
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Unternehmensführung / Management
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre
• Schlagworte: Behavioral response • Business interruption • Economic consequence of terrorism • Economic resilience • Economics of natural disasters • Natural Hazards • Technological accidents
• ISBN-10: 981-10-2567-3 / 9811025673
• ISBN-13: 978-981-10-2567-9 / 9789811025679