Why Stock Markets Crash (eBook)

Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems

Didier Sornette (Autor)

eBook Download: PDF | EPUB

2017
448 Seiten
Princeton University Press (Verlag)
978-1-4008-8509-1 (ISBN)

Infos

Didier Sornette is professor of entrepreneurial risks at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, professor of finance at the Swiss Finance Institute in Geneva, and the director of the Financial Crisis Observatory at ETH Zurich.

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The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "e;bubble."e; Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "e;end of the growth era"e; will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "e;tulip mania"e; in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "e;scientific tale,"e; as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 21.3.2017
• Reihe/Serie: Princeton Science Library
• Reihe/Serie: Princeton Science Library
• Vorwort: Didier Sornette
• Zusatzinfo: 10 halftones. 155 line illus. 21 tables.
• Verlagsort: Princeton
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Angewandte Mathematik
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Physik / Astronomie
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Allgemeines / Lexika
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Finanzierung
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre
• Schlagworte: Addition • antibubble • anti-imitation • Arbitrage • Arbitrage Opportunities • Asia • asset • balance of trade • Bank • Behavioral Economics • Black Monday • bubble • Calculation • Capital Gain • Central Bank • Collapse • Commodity • Complex Systems • computational methods • Cooperative Behavior • cooperative speculation • crash hazard • critical exponent • Currency • Currency Crash • Current Price • Deregulation • Derivatives • discrete scale invariance • dividend • Dow Jones Industrial Average • Drawdown • Economic bubble • Economic equilibrium • Economic Growth • Economic indicator • Economics • economist • economy • Efficient Market • Emergence • Emergent Markets • estimation • Exchange Rate • exponential growth • Extrapolation • Extreme events • financial crashes • Financial Crisis • finite-time singularity • Forecasting • forward prediction • fractal dimension • Fractals • free lunch • Gold • Government budget • Hazard Rate • Hedging • herding • Hong Kong • Illustration • Imitation • income • Inflation • ingredient • instability • insurance portfolio • Interest Rate • Investment • Investor • Latin America • logarithm • Logarithmic scale • log-periodicity • Louis Bachelier • market capitalization • Market (economics) • Market Failure • market liquidity • Market Maker • Market Price • Market trend • monetary policy • NASDAQ • Nasdaq Composite • Nasdaq index • Natural Scientists • New Economy • New York Stock Exchange • nikkei • Noise trader • Outlier • P 500 Index • Payment • population dynamics • positive feedback • power law • Prediction • price change • price-driven model • Price return • Pricing • Probability • Quantity • Random Walk • Rate of return • rational agent • Rational Expectations • Real versus nominal value (economics) • Recession • Renormalization Group • result • Returns • Risk • Risk Aversion • risk-driven model • Russia • S&amp • S&P 500 Index • saving • scale invariance • Scientist • Self-Organization • Self-similarity • Sell-off • Share Price • Social network • Social scientists • South Sea Bubble • Speculation • Speculative attack • speculative bubble • statistical significance • Stock Market • Stock market bubble • Stock market crash • Stock market index • stock market indices • stock market prices • Superhumans • Supply and Demand • sustainability • Technology • theory • Time evolution • Time Series • Trader (finance) • Trading Strategy • tronics boom • tulip mania • Uncertainty • United States Dollar • United States federal budget • Valuation (finance) • Value (economics) • Wealth • World Economy • World Population • year
• ISBN-10: 1-4008-8509-4 / 1400885094
• ISBN-13: 978-1-4008-8509-1 / 9781400885091