Uranium and Nuclear Energy: 1981 (eBook)

Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium Held by the Uranium Institute, London, 2 - 4 September, 1981

Sam Stuart (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2013 | 1. Auflage
416 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-1-4831-6209-6 (ISBN)

Infos

Uranium and Nuclear Energy: 1981 is a collection of 27 papers presented at the Sixth International Symposium on Uranium and Nuclear Energy, held by The Uranium Institute, London on September 2-4, 1981. This six-part volume represents a true cross-section of world opinion on nuclear matters. After briefly discussing the leading problems linked to world's energy and ideas concerning possible solutions, this book goes on presenting the Uranium Institute analysis on uranium supply and demand, the growth in stockpiles of natural and enriched uranium, and the effect of these stockpiles on the market for natural uranium. Part III examines the principles and applicability of the geological, geophysical, and geochemical uranium exploration techniques, while Part IV highlights the possibility of utilizing nuclear energy in a number of countries, with a particular emphasis on the involvement of public and the organizations in nuclear plant construction for project implementation. Part V considers the controversy in supply assurances in the nuclear field and the prospects of reaching new international consensus concerning uranium utilization. Part VI deals with the growing maturity of the nuclear industry, the nature of the world's energy crisis, and the plight of the developing countries in nuclear energy. This book will be of value to nuclear energy researchers and economists.

Textauszug

World energy outlook

Pierre Desprairies

Publisher Summary

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

The aim of my paper is to discuss the leading problems linked to energy which the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. This is a vast panorama and I am highly flattered by the confidence that the Uranium Institute has placed in my capacity to describe and resolve in such a short paper mankind’s anxieties with regard to energy, a subject of almost as great important as that of food resources.

It would be easy for me to reduce the problem to four sentences that would take only a paragraph: (1) yes, there is a real and lasting oil problem due to both the natural and deliberate limiting of world production capacities; (2) no, there is no problem of supplying mankind with energy, which exists in abundance; (3) the solution is perfectly simple and obvious: investment is necessary to make more rational use of energy and to decrease the demand for oil; (4) the problem will become all the more acute and take all the longer to solve if world economic growth is fast and investment efforts in energy are negligible.

I could leave things at that and, if I was convincing, I would have fulfilled my mission. But I feel that I should present some of the facts and figures on which I am basing these affirmations in order to persuade readers to accept them.

Oil reserves

Oil, to begin with, deserves special attention among all energy sources. It has been at the heart of world concerns for 8 years now; and will remain so for at least another 10 years, perhaps even 20. The reason for this concern is that, at least between now and 1990, there is a very good chance that the demand for oil will be greater than the supply.

For the time being, there is no lack of oil: there is even a surplus. Since March 1981, prices have dropped slightly, after having risen sharply since 1973. Expressed in constant money terms, a barrel of oil (with 7 barrels to the tonne) which was indexed at 100 in July 1973, rose in price to 250 in 1974, dropped back to 200 in 1978, and then rose again after 1979 to its present level of more than 400.

Prices rose sharply in 1973–74 and then again in 1979–80 because for several months the demand was greater than the supply. In 1973–74, the producing countries profited from this imbalance by raising prices. These had been maintained at a low level for a very long time, probably too long, by the oil companies which owned the oil wells and the outlets and could thus regulate the supply and demand as well as the price. I am not accusing the oil companies of any wrongdoing; the industrialized countries profited from it, and governments as well as the great majority of consumers approved this policy. Their only reproach was that the price was still too high.

The oil companies let themselves be taken unawares by the sudden spurt in the demand for oil as a result of the very fast economic growth between 1970 and 1973. The Arabian Gulf fields were no longer able to meet the demand. Extensive work had to be hastily undertaken to drill wells and enlarge terminals. In July 1973, tankers had to wait for 3 weeks at Ras Tanura before being loaded. The resumption of the Israeli-Egyptian war, the firm stand of the Shah of Iran and the Arab embargo did the rest. Everybody was surprised, if not by the event itself (which called for a rise of $12 in a single move from the previous price of $3), at least by its extraordinary scope. It was not the Americans who manipulated the price rise, as is sometimes still claimed, so as to obstruct their European and Japanese industrial rivals. In January 1979 the revolution in Iran reduced that country’s production and induced the entire world oil industry to build up stockpiles for fear of seeing the situation become worse. Lastly and above all, economic growth had resumed and with it the demand for oil. The first oil shock had been digested.

There is really nothing mysterious about this. The price of oil is and always will be a market price, set by international variations of supply and demand. This has always been true and is not likely to change in the future. Since the nationalization of the oil fields, the producing countries that now own them have the resources but no longer have the outlets that were held by the oil companies. They wish to break the links with the large international oil enterprises and sell to hundreds of brokers and buyers on a short- or very short-term basis. The market is no longer under control. Oil moves round the world at high speed on telex lines, day and night. As opposed to what is often supposed, OPEC is not a real cartel. It is a syndicate of sellers which, since the Caracas meeting of December 1979, has been incapable of agreeing oil prices. For the time being it is Saudi Arabia, which itself produces half the OPEC oil, which determines price levels. This country is now trying to bring these back to a reasonable figure. Moreover, it is not acting arbitrarily. Since the beginning of 1981 it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth.

I apologise for plunging into the realities of the oil market, but the problem is effectively this unstable balance between supply and demand and the threat of a lack of co-ordination between demand and the available production capacity, rather than the depletion of the fossil supply of oil. This instability is likely to continue to be a problem until 1990: the reason for taking this date as a reference will become clear later. Oil consumption is currently 3 billion tonnes/year. There are about 100 billion tonnes of proven oil reserves in fields which are already equipped or which can be made ready to produce within 1 or 2 years. These available reserves represent 33 years of consumption at the present rate. Over and beyond this amount, there are about 200 billion tonnes waiting to be discovered. All world experts more or less agree on these figures. Therefore, there are 300 billion tonnes of conventional oil available for the future. By conventional oil, I mean that which is produced today at a cost of approximately $2 – 5/bbl. This is effectively 100 years of consumption at the 1980 rate (Figure 1). Is this a little? Is this a lot? The point can be debated. Let us say in any case that the house is not yet on fire.

Figure 1 Ultimate world oil resources

The problem therefore, as is sometimes said, is a problem of how fully the tap is turned on and not a problem of what is in the tank. The tank is still 6/7th full. Of the recoverable supply of 350 Gt which nature has placed at our disposal and which we began using about 1850, only 50 Gt have so far been consumed.

The tap is the annual production capacity. The output seems to be blocked at about 3 Gt/year for a combination of economic and political reasons.

Problems of annual discoveries

Figure 2 clearly shows the problem of the tap. The 3 Gt tank at the bottom of the figure represents present annual world consumption. It is supplied from the 100 Gt of proven reserves which are made up of the fields that have been discovered and are equipped with production wells and valves. The reservoir is in turn supplied from 200 Gt of potential reserves resulting from new discoveries and improvements in recovery from both existing and new deposits. Improvements in recovery should make it possible by 2000 or 2050 to raise extraction from reservoir rocks to 40 – 50% of in situ oil, instead of the 30% which is all that is extracted at present. This makes a total of 80 Gt. But progress in enhanced recovery is still very slow. In fact, enhanced recovery will serve more to prolong the life of fields rather than to increase their production capacity. Therefore, in the years to come, it will mainly be oil from discoveries, shown by the 120 Gt on the left of Figure 2, which will top up the buffer tank as annual consumption empties it.

Figure 2 Availability of conventional oil reserves outside socialist countries.

Figure 3, prepared by Exxon and updated yearly, shows the problem of the tap, and explains some of the facts which make the attitude of the oil-producing countries understandable.

Figure 3...

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 22.10.2013
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Physik / Astronomie
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Bergbau
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Elektrotechnik / Energietechnik
• ISBN-10: 1-4831-6209-5 / 1483162095
• ISBN-13: 978-1-4831-6209-6 / 9781483162096