Hurricanes and Climate Change (eBook)

Volume 2

James B. Elsner, Robert E. Hodges, Jill C. Malmstadt, Kelsey N. Scheitlin (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: PDF

2010 | 2010
VIII, 255 Seiten
Springer Netherland (Verlag)
978-90-481-9510-7 (ISBN)

Infos

Hurricanes are nature's most destructive agents. Widespread interest surrounds the possibility that they might get even more destructive in the future. Policy makers consider it a call for action. Answers about when and by how much hurricanes will change are sought by financial institutions especially industry. And scientists are challenged by the range and interactions of the processes involved. This book, arising from the 2nd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change, contains new research on topics related to hurricanes and climate change since the 1st Summit. Chapters are grouped into research studies using global climate models and those taking empirical and statistical approaches. The latter include investigations of basin-wide and regional hurricane activity.

Inhalt

Hurricanes and Climate Change 1
Preface 5
Contents 7
1 The Tropical Cyclone Climate Model Intercomparison Project 9
1 Introduction 10
2 Tropical Cyclones as Simulated by Climate Models 11
2.1 Current-Climate Simulation 11
3 Model Description 13
4 Methodology 14
4.1 Large-Scale Climate Variables 14
4.2 Detection of Tropical Cyclones in Model Output 15
5 Results 17
5.1 CMIP3 Model Output 17
5.1.1 Large-Scale Fields: Emanuel Genesis Parameter 17
5.1.2 Comparison Between Results of Two Detection Schemes 17
5.1.3 PCMDI Model Tropical Cyclone Generation 22
6 High-Resolution Global Model Output 25
7 Regional Climate Model Results 27
8 Discussion and Conclusion 28
References 30
2 Change of Tropical Cyclone and Seasonal Climate State in a Global Warming Experiment with a Global Cloud-System-Resolving Model 33
1 Introduction 34
2 Experimental Design 34
3 Results 36
3.1 Changes in Mean Climate Features 36
3.2 Changes in Tropical Cyclones Tracks Frequency and Maximum Wind Speed 36
4 Summary and Remarks 43
References 45
3 Role of the SST Anomaly Structures in Response of Cyclogenesis to Global Warming 46
1 Introduction 47
2 Definitions of the Cyclogenesis Indices 48
2.1 Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) 48
2.2 Genesis Potential Index (GPI) 49
2.3 Calibration 49
3 Objectives of the Study 49
4 Global Results 50
5 Results for the Different Oceanic Basins 57
6 Discussion 58
7 Conclusion 61
References 62
4 Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Observations, Reanalysis and ARPEGE Simulations in the North Atlantic Basin 64
1 Introduction 65
2 Observation and Reanalysis 67
2.1 Datasets and Tracking Methodology 67
2.1.1 Datasets 67
2.1.2 Tracking Methodology 68
2.2 TCs Rainfall 69
2.3 Fraction of TCs Rainfall 74
2.4 Tropical Cyclonic Precipitation Efficiency -- TCPE 76
3 Global Climate Model ARPEGE 77
3.1 Model Description and Tracking Methodology 77
3.1.1 Model Description and Experiment Design 77
3.1.2 Tracking Methodology 78
3.2 Present Integration 79
3.2.1 TCs Rainfall 79
3.2.2 Fraction of TCs Rainfall 80
3.2.3 Tropical Cyclonic Precipitation Efficiency -- TCPE 80
3.3 Future Integration 82
3.3.1 Fraction of TCs Rainfall 82
3.3.2 Tropical Cyclonic Precipitation Efficiency -- TCPE 82
4 Conclusion and Discussions 83
References 84
5 Tropical Cyclones as a Critical Phenomenon 87
1 Introduction 87
2 Power-Law Distribution of the Energy of Tropical Cyclones 89
3 Power-Law Distribution of Earthquake Energies 94
4 Relevance and Mechanisms for Power-Law Distributions 95
4.1 Divergence of the Mean Value 95
4.2 Lack of Characteristic Scale 96
4.3 Criticality 96
5 Criticality of Tropical Cyclones 99
6 Tropical Cyclone Energy and Climate Change 101
7 Discussion 103
References 104
6 Environmental Signals in Property Damage Losses from Hurricanes 106
1 Introduction 106
2 Normalized Damage Losses: 1900--2007 107
3 Climate and Solar Factors 111
4 Large and Small Losses 113
5 A Model for Annual Expected Loss 115
6 A Model for the Probable Maximum Loss 118
7 Summary 122
References 123
7 A Statistical Analysis of the Frequency of United States and Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes Related to Solar Activity 125
1 Introduction 125
2 Background 126
3 Data 127
4 The Sun--Hurricane Relationship 128
4.1 Seasonal Variability 128
4.2 Within Season Variability 131
4.3 Multivariate Models of Seasonal Hurricane Frequency 135
5 Summary and Conclusions 138
References 139
8 Regional Typhoon Activity as Revealed by Track Patterns and Climate Change 141
1 Introduction 142
2 Methods 142
2.1 Clustering Methodology 142
2.2 Change-Point Analysis 145
3 Data 146
4 Results 146
5 A Suggestion for Future Research 150
References 151
9 Climatic Features and Their Relationship with Tropical Cyclones Over the Intra-Americas Seas 153
1 Introduction 154
2 Brief Review of the Intra-Americas Seas Climate Features 158
3 Data and Methods 159
4 Results 161
4.1 Annual Cycle 161
4.2 Climate Indexes for 1950--2007 164
4.3 Climate Indexes for 2010--2050 165
5 The 2008 Regional Climate 169
5.1 Sea Surface Temperature 169
5.2 Surface Temperature 169
5.3 Precipitation 171
5.4 The Mid Summer Drought 171
5.5 The Intra-Americas (Caribbean) Low-Level Jet 172
5.6 Cyclone Activity 172
6 Concluding Remarks 174
References 175
10 On the Increasing Intensity of the Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes 178
1 Introduction 178
2 Data 180
3 Quantiles and Hurricane Intensity 181
4 Increases in Hurricane Intensity with Increasing SST Accounting for ENSO 182
5 Geographic Distribution of Lifetime Maximum Intensity 183
6 Geographic Distribution of Changes in Maximum Intensity 185
7 Summary and Conclusions 189
8 Replies to Comments on Elsner et al. (2008) 190
References 192
11 Frequency and Intensity of Hurricanes Within Florida's Threat Zone 194
1 Introduction 194
2 Data 195
3 Hurricanes in the Vicinity of Florida 196
4 Hurricane Return Levels 199
5 Trends in Hurricane Intensity 201
6 Changes in Intensification and Decay Rates 202
7 Summary and Conclusions 204
References 205
12 Linking Tropical Cyclone Number Over the Western North Pacific with Sea Surface Temperatures 207
1 Introduction 208
2 The Main Source of TC Genesis and the ITCZ 209
3 The ITCZ Variabilities and Their Possible Causes 210
3.1 The ITCZ Variation 210
3.2 The Implication of SSTs Variation 210
3.3 The Effect of SSTs Pattern on the ITCZ Migration 213
4 Conclusive Remarks 215
References 216
13 A Track-Relative Climatology of Eglin Air Force Base Hurricanes in a Variable Climate 218
1 Introduction 218
2 An Average Hurricane Track 220
3 Hurricane Characteristics Along the Track 222
4 Warm Versus Cool SST Years 226
5 Summary and Conclusion 228
References 230
14 Estimating the Impact of Climate Variability on Cumulative Hurricane Destructive Potential Through Data Mining 231
1 Introduction 231
2 Background Information 232
3 Data 233
4 Theory and Methods 236
5 Results 239
5.1 Model Fit and Predictive Ability 239
5.2 Variable Importance 242
5.2.1 Region One 243
5.2.2 Region Two 244
5.2.3 Region Three 244
5.2.4 Aggregate of All Regions 245
6 Conclusion 245
References 251
Index 253

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 2.9.2010
• Zusatzinfo: VIII, 255 p.
• Verlagsort: Dordrecht
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geografie / Kartografie
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geologie
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Hydrologie / Ozeanografie
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Meteorologie / Klimatologie
• Themenwelt: Technik
• Schlagworte: climate change • climatology • Cloud • cyclone • Global climate models • global warming • Hurricanes • meteorology • Rain • Solar Variability • Temperature • typhoon • Typhoons
• ISBN-10: 90-481-9510-1 / 9048195101
• ISBN-13: 978-90-481-9510-7 / 9789048195107