Apocalypse When? (eBook)

Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive

Willard Wells (Autor)

eBook Download: PDF

2010 | 1. Auflage
212 Seiten
Springer New York (Verlag)
978-0-387-09837-1 (ISBN)

Infos

This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics.

Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory.

The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and 'reference class' to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula.

Inhalt

Table of contents 
5 
Preface 
9 
Acknowledgments 
12 
Figures 
13 
Pictures 
14 
Tables 
16 
Algebraic symbols 
17 
Abbreviations and acronym 
19 
About the author 
20 
Introduction 
21 
1 Formulation 
30 
1.1 MULTIPLE HAZARD RATES 
33 
1.2 PROBABLITY THEORY: A QUICK REVIEW 
37 
1.3 CHANGING HAZARD RATES 
39 
1.4 POSTERIOR PROBABILITY 
40 
1.5 PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE 
44 
1.6 CUMULATIVE RISK 
53 
2 Confirmation 
58 
2.1 BAYES' THEORY 
58 
2.2 STATISTICS OF BUSINESS FIRMS 
60 
2.3 STATISTICS OF STAGE PRODUCTIONS 
64 
2.4 LONGEVITY RANK 
71 
2.5 UNIVARIATE SUMMARY 
72 
3 Double jeopardy 
75 
3.1 A PARADOX 
75 
3.2 FORMULATION 
76 
3.3 AN EXAMPLE 
79 
3.4 LOGIC DIAGRAM 
82 
3.5 FURTURE RESEARCH 
83 
4 Human survivability 
85 
4.1 FORMULATION 
87 
4.2 HAZARDOUS DEVELOPMENT 
91 
4.3 PREDICTOR FORMULATION 
99 
4.4 SURVIVABILITY OF CIVILIZATION 
102 
4.5 SURVIVABILITY OFTHE HUMAN RACE 
104 
4.6 SUMMARY AND CURRENT HAZARD RATES 
107 
4.7 BIASES 
109 
5 Apocalypse how? 
111 
5.1 SCENARIOS FOR EXTINCTION 
112 
5.2 WILD CARDS 
123 
5.3 OVERRATED NATURAL HAZARDS 
130 
5.4 TRIAGE 
132 
5.5 REFLECTIONS ON THIS STUDY 
134 
5.6 PROSPECTS FOR A SAFER WORLD 
135 
5.7 SYSTEMIC STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES 
138 
5.8 SECOND CHANCE? 
141 
5.9 SURVIVAL HABITAT 
143 
Appendix A Survival formula derived from hazard rates 
147 
A.1 VARIABLE HAZARD RATE 
149 
A.2 UNKNOWN VULBNERABILITY 
150 
Appendix B Posterior survivalitity 
152 
Appendix C Infinite mean duration 
154 
Appendix D Survival predictor from Bayes' theory 
156 
D.1 ADVANCE KNOWLEDGE 
159 
D.2 NONINFORMATIVE PRIOR PROBABILITY 
162 
Appendix E Stage productions running on specified dates 
163 
Appendix F Extinction rates of prehistoric taxa 
175 
Appendix G Disaggregated mortality 
178 
Appendix H Stage productions with dual cum-risks 
181 
Appendix I Overall plan for survivability calculation 
201 
Appendix J Multiple hazards 
203 
Appendix K Cum-risks for mam-made hazards 
206 
Appendix L Statistical wieghts for types of hazard 
210 
Appendix M Extinxtion thwatered by civilizations' collapse 
212 
Appendix N Initial hazard rates 
215 
References 
217 
Index 
221 

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 26.3.2010
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Statistik
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Physik / Astronomie ► Astronomie / Astrophysik
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung
• Themenwelt: Technik
• ISBN-10: 0-387-09837-2 / 0387098372
• ISBN-13: 978-0-387-09837-1 / 9780387098371