How Long Do We Live? (eBook)

Demographic Models and Reflections on Tempo Effects

Elisabetta Barbi, John Bongaarts, James W. Vaupel (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: PDF

2008 | 2008
XIV, 284 Seiten
Springer Berlin (Verlag)
978-3-540-78520-0 (ISBN)

Infos

This book reviews the debate on how best to measure period longevity. Leading experts in demography critically examine the existence of the tempo effect in mortality, present extensions and applications, and compare period and cohort longevity measures.

Inhalt

Foreword 6
Contents 9
How long do we live? Demographic models and reflections on tempo effects: An introduction 14
1 Background 14
2 Overview of the monograph 16
References 21
I. Theoretical basis for the mortality tempo effect 22
Estimating mean lifetime 23
1 Methods 24
2 Results 27
3 Conclusion 35
Acknowledgements 36
References 36
Appendix A 37
Appendix B 38
The quantum and tempo of life-cycle events 40
1 Introduction 40
2 Background: age-specific event rates 41
3 Period quantum and tempo measures of the 2nd kind 43
4 Period quantum and tempo measures of the 1st kind 57
5 Conclusion 67
References 69
Appendix A: Relationship between the completed fertility rate and the weighted average of tempo-adjusted period total fertility rates 73
Appendix B: Comparison of measures of the 1st and 2nd kind 74
II. Critiques, extensions and applications of the mortality tempo effect 77
Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective 78
1 Introduction 78
2 Fertility 80
3 Mortality 88
4 Discussion 98
Acknowledgments 100
References 100
Lifesaving, lifetimes and lifetables 102
1 Introduction 102
2 How saving a life alters life expectancy 104
3 Individual lifetimes 106
4 The triangle of turbulence 108
5 How large is the distortion? 109
6 Considerations about true life expectancy 110
7 A model of stretched lifetimes 112
8 Quantum and tempo vs. proportions and increments 112
9 Directions for research 113
Acknowledgements 115
References 116
Tempo and its tribulations 117
1 Tempo 117
2 Measures 119
3 Representation of M 121
4 The moving average 124
5 Period counts of deaths 127
6 Current latent conditions 128
7 Total fertility 131
References 135
Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisal 137
1 Introduction 137
2 The existence of tempo e.ects in mortality 139
3 Bongaarts and Feeney’s tempo-adjusted life expectancy 142
4 Evaluating Bongaarts and Feeney’s proportionality assumption 143
5 Bongaarts and Feeney’s de.nition of changes in period mortality conditions 147
6 Assessing indicators of period mortality conditions 152
7 Conclusion 157
Acknowledgments 158
References 158
Increments to life and mortality tempo 161
1 Time-discrete increments to life 161
2 Empirical results: Swedish females, 1751-2002 162
3 Time-continuous cohort-indexed increments to life 163
4 Time-continuous period-indexed increments to life 166
5 Relation between cohort and period increments to life 167
6 Robustness of the Bongaarts-Feeney tempo adjustment formula 170
7 Increments to life and mortality tempo: mixed models 171
8 Conclusion 172
Acknowledgements 173
References 173
Mortality tempo versus removal of causes of mortality: Opposite views leading to different estimations of life expectancy 174
1 Introduction 174
2 Decreasing mortality as a sign of delay in deaths 175
3 Decreasing mortality as a change in the causes of death 177
4 Removing one cause of death: deeper insights 178
5 A numerical example of the two methods 179
6 Which life table is the reference table? 181
7 Unifying the two views: the repartition function of the delays by age and duration 183
8 Which is the best model? A discussion of the two methods 185
References 189
Appendix A: Deaths and survivors of age x in t after the removal of a mortality cause in t = 0 189
Appendix B: Demonstrating the strong properties of the two methods 191
Appendix C: Fixed and variable delays 194
Tempo effect on age-specific death rates 197
1 Introduction 197
2 Intuitive visual explanation 198
3 Mathematical presentation 201
4 Discussion 203
Acknowledgments 205
References 205
Appendix 206
Mortality tempo-adjustment: Theoretical considerations and an empirical application 208
1 Introduction 208
2 How mortality tempo a.ects period life expectancy 211
3 Why life expectancy di.erences between western and eastern Germany call for tempo-adjustment 215
4 Trends in tempo-adjusted life expectancy in western and eastern Germany 220
5 Discussion 223
References 229
Appendix 234
III. Comparison of period and cohort measures of longevity 239
Five period measures of longevity 240
1 Introduction 240
2 Definitions of period longevity measures 241
3 Results 242
4 Discussion 244
5 Conclusion 247
Acknowledgements 247
References 247
Found in translation? A cohort perspective on tempo-adjusted life expectancy 249
1 Introduction 249
2 Proof of exact cohort translation 251
3 Discussion 253
4 Conclusion 259
Acknowledgements 260
References 260
IV. Conclusions 262
Afterthoughts on the mortality tempo effect 263
1 Do tempo adjusted period longevity measures reflect current mortality conditions? 263
2 Conclusion 268
References 269
Turbulence in lifetables: Demonstration by four simple examples 270
1 Introduction 270
2 Saving infant lives for one year 271
3 Saving infant lives for three years 273
4 Saving infant lives for two years on average 273
5 Saving everyone’s life for one year 274
6 Discussion 277
Acknowledgements 278
Appendix 279
Two proofs of a recent formula by Griffith Feeney 280
1 Introduction 280
2 Proof by Jutta Gampe 280
3 Proof by Anatoli Yashin 281
References 281

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 21.3.2008
• Reihe/Serie: Demographic Research Monographs
• Reihe/Serie: Demographic Research Monographs
• Zusatzinfo: XIV, 284 p. 58 illus.
• Verlagsort: Berlin
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Sachbuch/Ratgeber
• Themenwelt: Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Statistik
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Soziologie ► Spezielle Soziologien
• Themenwelt: Technik
• Schlagworte: Demography • Life Expectancy • Longevity Measure • Period and Cohort Measures • Tempo Effect
• ISBN-10: 3-540-78520-5 / 3540785205
• ISBN-13: 978-3-540-78520-0 / 9783540785200