Envisioning Uncertain Futures (eBook)

Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research

Roman Peperhove, Karlheinz Steinmüller, Hans-Liudger Dienel (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: PDF

2019 | 1st ed. 2018
XIV, 255 Seiten
Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden (Verlag)
978-3-658-25074-4 (ISBN)

Infos

This book contains a collection of projects and scenarios dealing with new risks from emerging technologies, future peace keeping operations, and water distribution issues by combining analysis with dialogue. Special attention is paid to the methodology of narrative scenarios, and the role of imagination in the generation of these scenarios. Appearing as short stories, narrative scenarios include a great amount of explicit and implicit knowledge and they need story telling skills to become consistent, coherent as well as compelling and convincing pictures of the future.

Roman Peperhove is head of the research Unit for Public Security at Freie Universität Berlin.

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller is scientific director of a foresight consulting company and science fiction author.

Prof. Dr. Hans-Liudger Dienel holds the professorship 'Arbeitslehre/Technik und Partizipation' at the Technical University of Berlin and is Managing Director of the nexus Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary Research GmbH.

Inhalt

Content 6
Foreword 9
1 Introduction 15
I. Scenarios – A Methodological Tool 22
2 Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument 22
Introduction 22
Types of Scenarios 24
Narrative Scenarios 26
Idea Line vs. Plot Line 28
Decoding and Using Narrative Scenarios 31
Conclusion 32
References 32
3 Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight 35
Introduction 35
The Process 37
Communication and Impact 45
References 45
4 Surprising Scenarios. Imagination as a Dimension of Foresight 47
Introduction 47
Imagination in science fiction: “What if…” 49
Science fiction and foresight 51
Wild cards: Imagining surprising events 55
Conclusion 64
References 65
5 Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for Dialogue 67
Introduction 67
Threat scenarios 68
Urban Security 2025: The safe city or security as a social problem (short version) 70
Airport Security 2025: Adventure Airport or coping with uncertainty? 73
Scenarios as an instrument for dialogue 75
Risk perception and risk communication 76
The new culture of uncertainty 77
Politics as stakeholder 78
Conclusion: Security dialogues as a task of security research 78
References 79
6 Didactical Functions of Dark and Bright Scenarios: Examples from the European Transport Industry 81
Introduction 81
Horror scenarios and their function as a policy instrument 83
The example of “dark” scenarios for EU transport industry 1960’s-1980’s 85
Dark scenarios about the “American threat” 86
Dark scenarios about the Japanese threat 88
Proposing new dark scenarios for today 92
Conclusion 95
References 98
II. Scenarios in Practice 102
7 The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies 102
Introduction 102
Scenario Process 104
Five scenarios for privacy and emerging technologies 109
Future-oriented SWOT method 112
Limitations and improvements 117
Discussion 122
Conclusions 124
References 124
8 The Future of Water Use: Scenarios for Water Management in Telangana - Strengthening Local Governance in the Minor Irrigation Sector 129
Background of the project 129
The Salon method 132
Using scenarios in the Salon method 134
References 136
9 The Future of Water Use: Construction of Scenarios in the Project 138
References 148
10 “Peace Operations 2025”: From Shaping Factors to Scenarios 149
Brief Summaries of the ZIF Scenarios 162
References 166
11 Anticipating New Security Threats: The FESTOS Project 168
Introduction 168
The FESTOS Project 169
Technology Signals of Change 170
Categorizing signals of change 173
From signals to scenarios 179
Conclusion 180
References 181
12 The Development of FESTOS Scenarios 182
Introduction 182
Basic challenges 183
The Scenarios 185
Methodological structure 186
Scenario workshop 188
Finalization 191
Indicators as a strategic instrument for security improvement 191
Conclusion 194
References 195
13 The FESTOS Scenarios 198
How to read the scenarios? 198
III. Synopsis 230
14 Reflections on how to Improve Future Scenarios 230
Introduction 230
How to start? 231
Challenges 232
Strengths 233
New perspectives 234
Complex issues – displayed in an intuitive way 236
Obstacles 237
What is the best method? 237
Attitude matters 240
How can scenarios be used and utilized? 241
The scenarios in this book 245
References 246
15 Conclusion 250
About the Authors 256

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 26.2.2019
• Reihe/Serie: Zukunft und Forschung
• Reihe/Serie: Zukunft und Forschung
• Zusatzinfo: XIV, 255 p. 1 illus.
• Verlagsort: Wiesbaden
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Soziologie ► Spezielle Soziologien
• Schlagworte: Emerging Technological Threats • Future of Peace Operations • Future of Water Use • Futures Studies • Mobility Research • Narrative Scenarios • Public security • risk assessment • Security research • technology assessment
• ISBN-10: 3-658-25074-7 / 3658250747
• ISBN-13: 978-3-658-25074-4 / 9783658250744