Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3

Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

National Research Council, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Governance Center for Economic and International Studies, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data (Autoren)

Buch | Softcover

56 Seiten

2008
National Academies Press (Verlag)
978-0-309-11568-1 (ISBN)

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Offers a review for a document being produced for the CCSP. This study found the draft to be inconsistent with respect to whether or not it accepted two assumptions: that skillful forecasts necessarily have greater value, and that the most useful form of information is a projected value of an outcome parameter with an uncertainty distribution.

This study offered an independent peer review for a synthetic document being produced for the CCSP. It found the draft document to be in a fairly early stage of development and noted several issues needing attention in the revision. The draft was inconsistent across sections with respect to whether or not it accepted two assumptions: that more skillful forecasts necessarily have greater value, and that the most useful form of information is a projected future value of an outcome parameter with an uncertainty distribution. Available scientific evidence gives reason to question these assumptions, and the draft did not discuss the evidence. Among other issues needing attention, the review called for the revised draft to do more to substantiate its claims of the potential benefits of knowledge-action networks and to give more careful consideration to the appropriate balance of roles between governmental and private efforts.Table of Contents

Front Matter
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 INTRODUCTION
2 OVERVIEW ISSUES
3 RESPONSIVENESS TO PROSPECTUS QUESTIONS
4 SUPPORT FOR FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5 ORGANIZATION AND ACCESSIBILITY
References
APPENDIX A Topics for Synthesis and Assessment Products of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program
APPENDIX B Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff

Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data, National Research Council

1 Front Matter; 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY; 3 1 INTRODUCTION; 4 2 OVERVIEW ISSUES; 5 3 RESPONSIVENESS TO PROSPECTUS QUESTIONS; 6 4 SUPPORT FOR FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS; 7 5 ORGANIZATION AND ACCESSIBILITY; 8 References; 9 APPENDIX A Topics for Synthesis and Assessment Products of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program; 10 APPENDIX B Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff

Erscheint lt. Verlag	2.3.2008
Verlagsort	Washington
Sprache	englisch
Maße	216 x 279 mm
Themenwelt	Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Meteorologie / Klimatologie
ISBN-10	0-309-11568-X / 030911568X
ISBN-13	978-0-309-11568-1 / 9780309115681
Zustand	Neuware